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Wholesale Inflation Nears Double Digits on Energy, Food Costs
Prices paid by businesses in India rose faster in August.
This measure, called wholesale inflation, increased to 9.92%.
Energy became much more expensive because of trouble in West Asia.
Food prices also rose, especially for fruits, vegetables, milk, spices, and sugar.
Analysts think wholesale inflation could pass 10% in September.
Less-than-usual rain may reduce some farm harvests and push food prices higher.
Higher business costs can eventually make goods more expensive for shoppers.
Retail inflation is still within the Reserve Bank of India’s desired range, but officials are watching the risks.
India’s wholesale price inflation rose to 9.92% in August from 9.78% in July.
Crude petroleum and natural gas inflation climbed to 34.41%, pushing fuel and power inflation to 22.93%.
Food inflation reached a 20-month high of just over 7%, led by fruits, vegetables, milk, spices, and sugar.
Analysts expect wholesale inflation to reach double digits in September because of geopolitical risks, weaker currency, and deficient rainfall.
Retail inflation remained within the Reserve Bank of India’s target band, but elevated wholesale costs could eventually pressure consumer prices.
- Who
- Businesses, consumers, analysts, and the Reserve Bank of India are affected by or monitoring the inflation increase.
- What
- Wholesale price inflation rose to 9.92% in August, nearing double digits.
- Where
- India, amid higher global energy and commodity prices linked to developments in West Asia.
- When
- The increase was recorded in August, compared with July; analysts forecast further acceleration in September.
- Why
- Energy and food prices increased, while geopolitical uncertainty, deficient rainfall, and a weaker currency could add further pressure.
Analyst concerns
Reserve Bank assessment
Near-term inflation outlook
Analyst concerns
Analysts expect wholesale inflation to reach double digits in September and remain elevated because of the West Asia crisis, deficient rainfall, a weaker currency, and higher commodity prices.
Reserve Bank assessment
The Reserve Bank of India said generalized inflation pressures remained modest so far, while acknowledging risks that higher food, fuel, and input costs could become broad-based.
Food-price risks
Analyst concerns
Analysts expect food inflation to harden in September and October because of an unfavorable base and rising prices for items such as sugar.
Reserve Bank assessment
The Reserve Bank of India said proactive supply management and adequate grain stocks could provide buffers against rainfall-related food-price pressures.
Key facts
- August WPI inflation
- 9.92%
- July WPI inflation
- 9.78%
- August fuel and power inflation
- 22.93%, up from 20.05% in July
- Crude petroleum and natural gas inflation
- 34.41% in August, up from 26.99% in July
- August food inflation
- Just over 7%, a 20-month high
- September forecast
- India Ratings & Research expects WPI inflation to reach 10.2%
- Retail inflation
- 4.45% in July, within the Reserve Bank of India’s 2-6% target band
Quotes
Reserve Bank of India
India’s central bank
“Global oil prices have remained volatile with sharp two-way movements triggered by geopolitical developments, blurring the near-term outlook. Although generalized inflation pressures continue to remain modest so far, the risks of higher food, fuel and other input prices translating into a broad-based increase in inflation persist”
livemint.com
“With the West Asia crisis remaining unresolved (similar to the Russia-Ukraine war), the global uncertainty is likely to remain elevated in the near term. This, along with deficient rain and weaker currency, would continue to push inflation higher in the short term”
livemint.com
Sources
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