5 days ago
India August Retail Inflation Seen Reaching 20-Month High
Economists think prices in India rose faster in August.
They estimate that overall inflation may have reached 4.8%.
Food prices are expected to be the biggest reason for the increase.
Sugar, cereals, milk, eggs, oils, fats, and meat may all have become more expensive.
Fuel prices may also add to inflation.
Gold and silver prices could push up another measure called core inflation.
If prices keep rising, the Reserve Bank of India may increase interest rates.
The official August inflation number is scheduled to be released on September 14.
An FE poll of 13 economists projects India’s August CPI inflation at 4.8%, with estimates ranging from 4.5% to 4.9%.
The projected increase from July’s 4.45% would mark the 10th consecutive monthly rise and the third month above the RBI’s 4% target.
Food and beverages inflation is expected to reach about 6% from 5.24% in July, led by sugar and sustained increases in several food categories.
Fuel inflation may rise because of earlier petrol and diesel hikes, higher cooking-gas prices, and elevated international crude-oil prices.
Economists expect core inflation to exceed 4%, potentially prompting the RBI to raise its 5.25% repo rate by 50 basis points between October and March.
- Who
- An FE poll of 13 economists, the Reserve Bank of India, and its Monetary Policy Committee are central to the report.
- What
- India’s August consumer price inflation is projected to rise to 4.8%, a possible 20-month high.
- Where
- India.
- When
- The estimate concerns August; official data is scheduled for release on September 14, and a possible rate increase is expected between October and March.
- Why
- Higher food prices are expected to drive inflation, with fuel, gold, silver, and broader core-price pressures also contributing.
Key facts
- Projected August CPI inflation
- 4.8%
- July CPI inflation
- 4.45%
- August 2025 CPI inflation
- 2.01%
- Projected food and beverages inflation
- About 6%, compared with 5.24% in July
- Current repo rate
- 5.25%
- Potential rate increase
- 50 basis points between October and March
- RBI FY27 average inflation projection
- 5.0%
- Official data release
- September 14
Quotes
Nirmal Bang Equities economists
Economists at Nirmal Bang Equities commenting on expected food-price increases.
“While the absence of significant revisions in petrol and diesel retail prices continues to limit the immediate pass-through to consumers, sustained firmness in global energy markets poses upside risks over the medium term”
financialexpress.com
“The rise in food prices is likely to be led by sugar prices while prices of cereals, milk and eggs, oils and fats, and meat are also seeing sustained uptick”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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