1 day ago
Gold and Silver Outlook After Jackson Hole Shock
Gold and silver prices fell after Kevin Warsh suggested that interest rates might need to rise if inflation stays too high.
Higher interest rates can make gold less attractive to investors.
Tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz also pushed oil prices higher and increased inflation worries.
On Tuesday, international gold and silver prices remained under pressure.
In India, MCX gold declined, while silver later recovered and gained.
Julius Baer expects gold to perform better than silver because central banks continue buying gold.
Monarch PMS created bear, base, and bull forecasts for the end of 2026.
Its most optimistic forecast says gold could reach ₹1,70,861 per 10 grams.
That forecast depends on weaker US labour data, lower real yields, renewed investment demand, and tighter silver supplies.
Gold and silver prices reversed sharply after Kevin Warsh made hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,428.54 per ounce, while MCX gold declined 0.3% to ₹153,997 per 10 grams.
MCX silver recovered from an initial decline to rise 1% to ₹235,800 per kilogram.
Julius Baer remains constructive on gold but neutral on silver, citing central-bank demand and weaker industrial prospects for silver.
Monarch PMS assigns a 25% probability to its bull case, in which gold could reach ₹1,70,861 per 10 grams by the end of 2026.
- Who
- Investors, Kevin Warsh, Julius Baer, and Monarch PMS are central to the outlook.
- What
- Gold and silver prices declined after hawkish comments at Jackson Hole, while analysts assessed possible prices through the end of 2026.
- Where
- The remarks were made at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, while prices were reported in international and Indian commodity markets.
- When
- The reversal followed remarks made on Friday; prices remained under pressure on Tuesday, with forecasts extending to the end of 2026.
- Why
- Higher interest-rate expectations, rising oil prices, Middle East tensions, inflation concerns, and differing supply-and-demand conditions for gold and silver influenced prices.
Constructive Gold Outlook
Cautious or Bearish Outlook
Gold’s relative strength
Constructive Gold Outlook
Julius Baer says gold has a clearer investment case because central-bank buying provides structural demand.
Cautious or Bearish Outlook
Higher bond yields and possible US rate hikes could continue weighing on gold prices.
Silver prospects
Constructive Gold Outlook
Monarch PMS says silver supply-demand conditions are supportive, including a sixth consecutive annual deficit and flat mine supply over the past decade.
Cautious or Bearish Outlook
Julius Baer expects industrial silver demand to soften, citing cheaper substitutes and weaker growth prospects for Chinese solar-module makers.
2026 price direction
Constructive Gold Outlook
Monarch PMS’s bull case sees gold reaching as high as ₹1,70,861 per 10 grams and silver as high as ₹3,66,130 per kilogram.
Cautious or Bearish Outlook
Its bear case sees gold falling as low as ₹1,03,737 per 10 grams and silver as low as ₹1,37,282 per kilogram if the Federal Reserve hikes rates and demand weakens.
Key facts
- Spot gold
- Down 0.4% at $4,428.54 per ounce by 0432 GMT.
- MCX gold
- Down 0.3% at ₹153,997 per 10 grams.
- MCX silver
- Recovered from an initial 0.1% decline to rise 1% to ₹235,800 per kilogram.
- Rate expectations
- Traders saw a 66% probability of a September US rate hike and an 89% probability of a December hike, according to CME FedWatch.
- Monarch base case
- Gold at ₹1,31,170–₹1,43,372 per 10 grams and silver at ₹2,13,543–₹2,59,302 per kilogram by the end of 2026; probability 55%.
- Monarch bear case
- Gold at ₹1,03,737–₹1,18,992 per 10 grams and silver at ₹1,37,282–₹1,67,790 per kilogram; probability 20%.
- Monarch bull case
- Gold at ₹1,52,554–₹1,70,861 per 10 grams and silver at ₹2,89,853–₹3,66,130 per kilogram; probability 25%.
Quotes
Carsten Menke
Head of Next Generation Research at Julius Baer
“In our view, the case for gold is still clearer than the case for silver.”
livemint.com
“he'll do what he has to do”
livemint.com
Sources
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