5 days ago
Gold and Silver Prices Waver Ahead of Warsh Speech
Gold and silver prices moved up and down on Friday.
Early in the morning, both metals became cheaper on the Indian exchange.
Later, silver recovered and gold was only slightly lower.
Investors were waiting for Kevin Warsh, a senior US central-bank official, to speak at Jackson Hole.
They hoped his remarks would explain what might happen to US interest rates.
Inflation is still higher than the Federal Reserve wants.
Higher interest rates can make gold less attractive to some investors.
However, worries about conflict, US debt and financial uncertainty can support gold prices.
Analysts therefore expect prices to remain volatile and trade within a range.
MCX gold October contracts fell 0.57% to ₹1,58,085 around 9:15 AM, later trading 0.04% lower at ₹1,58,835.
MCX silver September futures initially declined 0.55% to ₹2,39,320, but later gained 0.82% to ₹2,42,674.
International gold prices also weakened, with spot gold at $4,576.30 and US gold futures near $4,629.
Investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for signals on the interest-rate outlook.
Analysts cited inflation, currency movements, Middle East tensions and US debt as factors likely to keep gold volatile.
- Who
- Investors, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, and commodity analysts including Ravi Singh and Jateen Trivedi.
- What
- Gold and silver futures fluctuated, with early declines followed by a partial recovery, ahead of a Federal Reserve speech.
- Where
- On the Multi Commodity Exchange of India and in international markets; Warsh’s remarks were scheduled for the Jackson Hole economic symposium.
- When
- Friday, 28 August; prices were reported around 9:15 AM and again at 12:35 PM.
- Why
- Investors were seeking clues about the US interest-rate path while assessing persistent inflation, currency movements, Middle East tensions and US debt.
Factors Supporting Gold
Factors Pressuring Gold
Inflation and interest rates
Factors Supporting Gold
Ravi Singh said elevated US debt and bond-market uncertainty support gold as a hedge against fiscal and currency risks.
Factors Pressuring Gold
Persistent inflation could make the Federal Reserve keep rates high or potentially raise them, which can weigh on gold demand.
Market direction
Factors Supporting Gold
Singh said a sustained break above ₹1,64,500 could attract fresh buying toward ₹1,68,000.
Factors Pressuring Gold
Singh also said a double-top-like pattern could lead to consolidation or a retracement toward ₹1,55,000; Trivedi expected a ₹1,55,000–₹1,61,500 range.
Rate expectations
Factors Supporting Gold
Markets had reduced the probability of a September US rate hike to about 36%, which may ease pressure on gold.
Factors Pressuring Gold
The probability of a December hike remained near 72%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, keeping uncertainty elevated.
Key facts
- MCX gold at 9:15 AM
- October contracts were down 0.57% at ₹1,58,085 per 10 grams.
- MCX gold at 12:35 PM
- October contracts were down 0.04% at ₹1,58,835 per 10 grams.
- MCX silver
- September contracts initially fell 0.55% to ₹2,39,320 per kilogram, then gained 0.82% to ₹2,42,674.
- International gold
- Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,576.30 per ounce, while US gold futures were near $4,629.
- Inflation
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in July, while core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year.
- Analysts’ gold range
- Jateen Trivedi expected MCX gold to trade between ₹1,55,000 and ₹1,61,500.
- Technical levels
- Analysts identified MCX gold support at ₹1,57,600–₹1,57,000 and resistance at ₹1,59,500–₹1,60,000.
Quotes
Ravi Singh
Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Service
“Investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech for clearer policy cues.”
livemint.com
Sources
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