1 week ago
Doomsday Population Prediction Nears, But Demographers Reject Squeezed-to-Death Scenario
A group of scientists created a math model about how quickly the human population was growing.
They said that if growth continued in exactly the same way, people would eventually have no room left and could be “squeezed to death.”
Their model gave Friday, November 13, 2026, as the mathematical doomsday date.
However, the population has not grown as quickly as the model expected.
The world had just over three billion people when the paper was written and about 8.2 billion in 2026.
Population growth peaked around 1963 and has since slowed.
Because of this slowdown, demographers say the predicted disaster is unlikely.
The scientists also found a serious problem when their formula suggested that the first human lived before Earth and the universe existed.
Heinz von Foerster and colleagues predicted that human population growth could approach infinity on Friday, November 13, 2026.
Their model projected that shrinking intervals between population doublings would eventually leave humanity with no available space.
The prediction was based on 24 historical population estimates spanning roughly 2,000 years.
Global population growth has slowed substantially, from a peak of about 2.2% in 1963 to approximately 0.84% in 2026.
Researchers acknowledged flaws in the model after its backward calculation placed the first human about 200 billion years ago.
- Who
- Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues made the prediction; demographers and researchers later challenged it.
- What
- A mathematical model predicted that human population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026, but current evidence does not support that scenario.
- Where
- The prediction concerns the global human population on Earth.
- When
- The prediction was associated with 1960; the article also states that the paper appeared in Science on November 13, 2026, and identifies that date as the approaching doomsday date.
- Why
- The model extrapolated accelerating population growth and shrinking intervals between population doublings.
Original Population Model
Modern Demographic Assessment
Whether doomsday is approaching
Original Population Model
Von Foerster’s model suggested that continuing historical growth would make the human population approach infinity on November 13, 2026.
Modern Demographic Assessment
Demographers say the scenario is unlikely because population growth has slowed and has not continued in the same way as before the 1960s.
Reliability of the mathematics
Original Population Model
The model used 24 population estimates and identified increasingly shorter intervals between population doublings.
Modern Demographic Assessment
The model produced an implausible backward result, suggesting that the first human lived about 200 billion years ago, so its authors acknowledged it might be wrong.
Key facts
- Predicted date
- Friday, November 13, 2026
- Original population estimate
- A little over 3 billion people when the paper was written
- Population estimate in 2026
- Approximately 8.2 billion people
- Peak annual growth rate
- Roughly 2.2% in 1963
- Annual growth rate in 2026
- About 0.84%
- Estimated doubling time then
- About 32 years at the 1963 growth rate
- Estimated doubling time now
- About 83 years at the 2026 growth rate
- Model flaw
- Running the equation backward placed the first human approximately 200 billion years ago
Quotes
Heinz von Foerster
Austrian physicist and co-author of the population forecast
“At this date human population will approach infinity if it grows as it has in the last two millennia.”
wionews.com
“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve to death. They will be squeezed to death.”
wionews.com
Sources
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