2 hrs ago
Saudi Arabia Plans Offensive to Break Houthi Red Sea Hold
Saudi Arabia is considering a military attack against the Houthis in Yemen.
The main goal would be to push the Houthis away from the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
This waterway is important because ships use it to travel between the Red Sea, the Mediterranean and Asia.
Saudi-backed Yemeni fighters would do most of the fighting on the ground.
Saudi airplanes would support them from the air.
The United States is offering intelligence, while other countries are mainly helping with equipment and defenses.
The attack could be limited to the coast or spread across several parts of Yemen.
Officials have not set a firm starting date.
Experts say the Yemeni forces are divided, so it is unclear whether they could defeat the Houthis.
Saudi Arabia is considering a Yemen offensive to reverse Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
The possible operation could be a focused coastal attack or a broader assault across Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
Saudi-backed Yemeni forces would lead ground operations, supported by Saudi air strikes and potentially more than 100,000 Yemeni troops.
The United States is providing intelligence, while Pakistan, Turkey and France are supplying equipment, advisers or defensive support rather than expected direct combat forces.
Analysts warn that divided and poorly organized anti-Houthi factions may struggle against disciplined Houthi forces, making the operation’s outcome uncertain.
- Who
- Saudi Arabia, Saudi-backed Yemeni forces and the Houthi movement are central to the proposed operation, with support from the United States, Pakistan, Turkey and France.
- What
- Saudi Arabia is considering an offensive to retake areas around the Bab el-Mandeb strait and possibly attack Houthi positions on multiple fronts.
- Where
- The possible fighting would take place in Yemen, particularly around Bab el-Mandeb and in Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.
- When
- Officials said the operation could begin in the coming weeks, with estimates ranging from within a week to after the United States midterm elections in early November.
- Why
- Saudi Arabia wants to reverse Houthi territorial gains, restore maritime traffic and improve its position before potential peace negotiations.
Arguments for a limited offensive
Warnings about operational risks
Scope of the attack
Arguments for a limited offensive
Former United States ambassador Michael Ratney said a narrowly focused operation to retake coastal areas could restore the status quo and normal maritime traffic.
Warnings about operational risks
A broader, multi-front offensive could expand the conflict and require coordinated attacks across several parts of Yemen.
Military feasibility
Arguments for a limited offensive
Saudi air support, foreign equipment and a potentially large Yemeni mobilization could give anti-Houthi forces the resources to challenge recent Houthi gains.
Warnings about operational risks
Analyst Mohammed Albasha said many anti-Houthi factions are fragmented, poorly organized and unprepared for a sustained campaign against disciplined Houthi forces.
Ground-force performance
Arguments for a limited offensive
Saudi-backed forces could advance if they coordinate effectively and maintain their positions before moving onto the offensive.
Warnings about operational risks
Saudi political analyst Ali Shihabi cautioned that success would depend heavily on the quality and performance of local Yemeni forces.
Key facts
- Main objective
- Reverse Houthi gains around Bab el-Mandeb and restore normal maritime traffic.
- Possible plans
- A focused coastal assault or a broader, coordinated offensive across several Yemeni governorates.
- Potential ground force
- More than 100,000 Yemeni troops could be mobilized, depending on the operation’s scale.
- Saudi role
- Saudi air strikes would support Saudi-backed Yemeni forces on the ground.
- United States support
- Military advisers and intelligence, including targeting information, are reportedly being provided.
- Foreign assistance
- Pakistan has supplied equipment and advisers; Turkey has supplied drones; France has announced defensive systems and troops for Yanbu.
- Timing
- No precise launch date was available; estimates ranged from within a week to after early-November United States midterm elections.
Quotes
Mohammed Albasha
Yemen analyst
“As much they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before Houthis controlled territory along Bab el-Mandeb. Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”
deccanchronicle.com
theprint.in
republicworld.com
“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organised or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once.”
deccanchronicle.com
theprint.in
republicworld.com
Sources
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