14 hrs ago
Rising Inflation Strengthens Case for Higher Interest Rates
Prices in India rose faster in August than they did in July.
Food prices increased especially quickly, partly because some vegetables and other foods became more expensive.
Prices for many non-food goods and services also went up.
Higher fuel costs can make transportation and other products more expensive.
Global oil prices have risen because of worsening tensions in West Asia.
Some economists think inflation could reach or pass 6% in the coming months.
The Reserve Bank of India expects inflation to remain elevated.
These price increases may make higher interest rates more likely.
Higher rates are one way a central bank tries to slow rising prices.
India’s retail inflation rose to 4.8% in August from 4.45% in July, according to the National Statistics Office.
Food inflation increased to 5.95%, with onion, ginger and garlic among the contributors.
Core inflation also rose, while higher food and fuel costs affected hospitality prices.
Wholesale inflation climbed to 9.92% in August from 9.78% in July, suggesting broader price pressures.
The Reserve Bank of India projects third-quarter inflation at 5.9%, while other forecasts put it near or above 6%.
- Who
- Indian consumers, the National Statistics Office, the Reserve Bank of India, State Bank of India economists, CRISIL and ICRA.
- What
- Retail, food, core and wholesale inflation all showed signs of strengthening, increasing pressure for higher interest rates.
- Where
- India, with global energy pressures linked to developments in West Asia.
- When
- The latest figures cover August; the Indian crude oil basket data cited is from September 14, and forecasts concern the coming months.
- Why
- Food, fuel and other prices are rising more broadly, raising concern that inflation could exceed the Reserve Bank of India’s upper target threshold.
Key facts
- August retail inflation
- 4.8%, up from 4.45% in July
- August food inflation
- 5.95%
- August wholesale inflation
- 9.92%, up from 9.78% in July
- Reserve Bank projection
- Consumer inflation at 5.9% in the third quarter
- Indian crude oil basket
- $128.7 per barrel on September 14, compared with $90.2 in August
- External forecast
- ICRA expects inflation near 6% in October-November; State Bank of India economists say it could exceed 6.5%
Quotes
SBI economists
Economists at the State Bank of India cited in the article’s inflation analysis
“data till August indicates that the process of inflation getting generalised has started”
indianexpress.com
“elevated vulnerability in cotton, bajra, maize, tur, groundnut and soybean.”
indianexpress.com
Sources
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