3 weeks ago
SBI Research warns inflation may cross 6% in October November
In India, inflation is a big word for how much prices go up over time.
A research team from a big Indian bank, called SBI, studies these price changes.
The team says prices in August will go up a little, to 4.7 percent.
Then in October and November, prices might go up more than 6 percent.
That sounds like a lot, but the team says it will be temporary.
By the early part of next year, prices should calm down to about 5 percent.
Food is a big reason prices are rising right now.
Other things, like things that aren't food, are staying more steady in price.
The team thinks the central bank will keep interest rates the same to help families and businesses.
So experts say this is a short bump, not a lasting problem.
SBI Research expects India's August inflation print to rise to 4.7%.
Inflation is forecast to temporarily breach 6% in October and November before easing to around 5% in Q4 FY27.
India's food inflation rose to 5.52% in July from 5.32% in June, while global food inflation eased to 8.35%.
Core CPI excluding food and fuel fell 5 basis points to 3.85% in July, signalling contained underlying price pressures.
SBI Research expects the RBI to maintain the repo rate at 5.25% during FY27 despite the temporary spike.
- Who
- SBI Research, the research unit of India's State Bank of India, issued the forecast; the Reserve Bank of India is the central bank whose monetary policy could be affected.
- What
- A forecast that India's inflation will rise to 4.7% in August, temporarily cross 6% in October and November, then ease to around 5% in Q4 FY27.
- Where
- India
- When
- August 2026 inflation print expected at 4.7%; temporary spike forecast for October and November; moderation expected in Q4 FY27 (January-March 2027).
- Why
- Rising food inflation and price pressures, even as underlying core inflation and imported inflation remain relatively contained.
Key facts
- Expected August inflation
- 4.7%
- Peak forecast (October-November)
- Just above 6%
- Q4 FY27 inflation forecast
- Around 5%
- July retail inflation
- 4.45%
- July food inflation
- 5.52%
- Core CPI (excluding food and fuel)
- 3.85%
- Expected repo rate (FY27)
- 5.25%
- Imported inflation (July)
- 7.3%










