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India September Retail Inflation Seen Near Two-Year High
A poll of economists predicts that prices in India rose faster in September.
They think inflation may have reached 5.6%, mainly because food became more expensive.
Food inflation could be around 7–8%.
The estimate would be higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for the fourth month in a row.
The central bank recently raised its main interest rate by 25 basis points, to 5.5%.
It also raised its inflation forecast for the current financial year.
Economists expect prices to remain under pressure in the coming months.
The official September inflation figures are due on October 12.
An FE poll of 13 economists expects September retail inflation to reach 5.6%, a 23-month high.
Food prices are expected to drive the increase, with food inflation forecast at around 7–8%.
The estimate would put inflation above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% target for a fourth consecutive month.
The Reserve Bank raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% and lifted its current-year inflation forecast to 5.2%.
September CPI data is scheduled for release by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on October 12.
- Who
- An FE poll of 13 economists; the Reserve Bank of India and its Monetary Policy Committee also feature in the report.
- What
- Economists forecast September consumer price inflation at 5.6%, driven mainly by food prices.
- Where
- India.
- When
- September; official CPI data is scheduled for release on October 12.
- Why
- Economists attribute the expected rise chiefly to higher food prices, with supply pressures and fuel costs also cited.
Key facts
- September CPI forecast
- 5.6% in an FE poll of 13 economists; estimates ranged from 5% to 5.9%.
- Previous CPI readings
- 4.45% in July and 4.82% in August.
- Food inflation forecast
- Around 7–8% in September, compared with 6% in August.
- Core inflation forecast
- 4.3% in September, up from 4.2% in August.
- Repo rate
- Raised by 25 basis points to 5.5%.
- RBI current-year CPI forecast
- Raised by 20 basis points to 5.2%.
- Official data release
- September CPI data is due from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on October 12.
Quotes
Sanjay Malhotra
Reserve Bank of India Governor
“The near-term outlook on inflation points towards continued pressures from supply side, on account of the deficient Southwest monsoon, El Nino conditions and high volatility in international oil prices.”
financialexpress.com
Teresa John
Economist at Nirmal Bang Equities
“Sugar prices are also expected to rise over 7% MoM reflecting pass-through of past increases. Cereals, pulses, and oils & fats will also see a sustained sequential rise.”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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