3 weeks ago
Sugar and Chip Prices Raise RBI Inflation Concerns
Prices in India went up faster in August.
The biggest concerns were sugar and products that use computer memory chips.
Sugar became much more expensive, partly because supplies and inventories were lower than expected.
The government allowed more raw sugar imports to help control prices before major festivals.
Memory chips used in electronics also became more expensive.
These higher costs could eventually raise prices for appliances, prepared food and other goods.
Economists say price increases are spreading across many parts of the economy.
The Reserve Bank of India may respond by raising interest rates.
India’s retail inflation rose to an eight-month high of 4.82% in August, while wholesale inflation reached 9.92%.
Sugar prices increased 19% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year in August, making sugar-related products a major food-inflation driver.
The sugar, confectionery and desserts category contributed about 15 basis points to August’s headline inflation despite accounting for only 1.4% of the CPI basket.
Inflation in information and communication equipment rose to 2.95% as prices increased for a ninth consecutive month, reflecting higher memory-chip costs.
Economists expect the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% on October 7.
- Who
- The Reserve Bank of India, its Monetary Policy Committee, and economists including analysts from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership and Emkay Global Financial Services.
- What
- India’s retail inflation increased in August, with sugar and memory-chip-related goods emerging as notable sources of price pressure.
- Where
- India.
- When
- The data covers August; the Monetary Policy Committee is expected to review rates on October 7, with September CPI data expected on October 12.
- Why
- Lower-than-expected sugar production, low inventories, and rising global memory-chip prices contributed to higher consumer prices; economists also warn that these pressures may spread to other goods and services.
Economists Warning of Broader Inflation
RBI’s Earlier Supply-Shock Assessment
How widespread are price pressures?
Economists Warning of Broader Inflation
Economists from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership argue that inflation is already broadening and that the MPC’s decision to wait for clearer generalisation does not hold up to scrutiny.
RBI’s Earlier Supply-Shock Assessment
The RBI said in August that there were little signs of generalisation and characterized the increase in inflation as a supply shock.
Likely policy response
Economists Warning of Broader Inflation
Economists expect the Monetary Policy Committee to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% because stronger price pressures may persist.
RBI’s Earlier Supply-Shock Assessment
The article says the MPC had previously waited for more evidence before treating the inflation increase as broad-based.
Key facts
- August CPI inflation
- 4.82%, an eight-month high
- August wholesale inflation
- 9.92%
- Sugar price change
- Up 19% from July and 24% from a year earlier
- Sugar category CPI weight
- The sugar, confectionery and desserts category accounts for 1.4% of the CPI basket
- Sugar category contribution
- About 15 basis points to August headline inflation
- Information and communication equipment inflation
- 2.95% in August
- Potential repo-rate move
- Economists forecast a 25-basis-point increase to 5.5% on October 7
Quotes
ICICI Securities Primary Dealership economists
Economists from ICICI Securities Primary Dealership commenting on the MPC’s inflation assessment.
“insistence in August on waiting to see price pressures become more general and terming the current inflation rise as a supply shock does not hold up to scrutiny”
indianexpress.com
“little signs of generalisation of price pressures”
indianexpress.com
Sources
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