3 hrs ago
UPI MDR Could Boost Paytm and Pine Labs Earnings
Some payment companies may earn more if charges are introduced on certain UPI transactions above Rs 2,000.
Analysts think Paytm could receive part of this money.
JM Financial expects this could increase Paytm’s revenue and adjusted earnings in FY27E and FY28E.
It raised its Paytm target price to Rs 2,150.
However, NPCI has not yet explained how the money would be divided among the companies involved.
This makes the estimates uncertain.
Emkay Global also raised its target price for Pine Labs, although Pine Labs shares fell.
MobiKwik shares also declined during the trading session.
JM Financial raised its Paytm target price to Rs 2,150 from Rs 1,950.
The brokerage estimates Paytm’s incremental revenue at Rs 210 crore in FY27E and Rs 470 crore in FY28E.
JM Financial assumes Paytm will receive 20 per cent of the MDR pool, but NPCI has not finalized its distribution formula.
Emkay Global raised Pine Labs’ target price to Rs 230 from Rs 190, despite the stock falling 7.69 per cent to Rs 178.80.
Emkay identified interchange sharing, merchant discounts and transaction elasticity around the Rs 2,000 threshold as key risks.
- Who
- Paytm, Pine Labs Ltd, One MobiKwik Systems Ltd, JM Financial, Emkay Global and NPCI are mentioned.
- What
- Analysts assessed the potential earnings impact of MDR on UPI transactions above Rs 2,000.
- Where
- The companies’ shares traded in the Indian stock market.
- When
- The estimates refer to FY27E and FY28E; the article does not specify a publication date.
- Why
- The potential MDR pool could create additional revenue, but its distribution and the response of merchants and acquirers remain uncertain.
Potential earnings upside
Key risks and uncertainties
MDR revenue sharing
Potential earnings upside
JM Financial estimates that Paytm could receive 20 per cent of the MDR pool, increasing revenue and adjusted EBITDA.
Key risks and uncertainties
NPCI has not specified how the MDR pool will be distributed across the value chain, making the 20 per cent assumption a major risk.
Valuations and operating leverage
Potential earnings upside
Emkay Global said valuations could compress as operating leverage develops, citing projected EBITDA and profit growth for Paytm and Pine Labs.
Key risks and uncertainties
Emkay flagged the possibility that competitive discounting could pass value to merchants as acquirers compete for large-ticket transactions.
Transactions above Rs 2,000
Potential earnings upside
Analysts see additional earnings potential from MDR on UPI transactions above the Rs 2,000 threshold.
Key risks and uncertainties
Emkay identified transaction elasticity at the Rs 2,000 threshold as a risk to its estimates.
Key facts
- Paytm target
- JM Financial revised its target to Rs 2,150 from Rs 1,950; Emkay Global suggested Rs 2,400.
- Paytm revenue estimate
- Incremental revenue estimated at Rs 210 crore in FY27E and Rs 470 crore in FY28E.
- Paytm EBITDA estimate
- Incremental adjusted EBITDA estimated at Rs 140 crore in FY27E and Rs 440 crore in FY28E, net of UPI incentive loss.
- Paytm MDR share assumption
- JM Financial retained a 20 per cent assumption for Paytm’s share of the MDR pool.
- Pine Labs share move
- Pine Labs Ltd fell 7.69 per cent to Rs 178.80.
- Pine Labs target
- Emkay Global raised its target to Rs 230 from Rs 190.
- Other stock move
- One MobiKwik Systems Ltd shares fell 1.95 per cent to Rs 196.95.
Quotes
JM Financial
Brokerage that estimated Paytm’s potential MDR-related revenue and EBITDA gains
“Retaining our 20 per cent share assumption for Paytm, pass-through rises to 8 bps (from 5 bps). We now reckon FY27E/28E incremental revenue would be Rs 210 crore/470 crore and incremental adjusted Ebitda shall be Rs 140 crore/440 crore (net of UPI incentive loss)—taking overall adjusted Ebitda 9.8 per cent/19 per cent above our no-MDR estimates, with margin up 110 bps/270 bps to 14.6 per cent/20.6 per cent.”
businesstoday.in
“Optically rich on near-term earnings, these multiples compress rapidly as operating leverage plays through — we estimate FY28-32E EBITDA CAGR of 32.6 per cent/29.8 per cent and PAT CAGR of 27.8 per cent/36.4 per cent for Paytm/Pine Labs — with the MDR stream accruing on rails and merchant relationships already in place.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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