1 week ago
Rupee Gains as Softer Dollar Counters Oil and Geopolitical Risks
The Indian rupee became a little stronger against the US dollar on Friday, 21 August.
Different reports gave slightly different opening levels and gains.
A weaker US dollar helped the rupee.
However, expensive oil made it harder for the rupee to rise.
India imports more than 85% of the crude oil it uses.
Fighting and shipping problems in the Middle East have kept oil prices above $93 per barrel.
India may also receive less discounted Russian oil because China is buying more of it.
The Reserve Bank of India has been working to prevent sudden currency movements.
Experts still expect the rupee to face pressure and possibly move toward 96.20–96.50 per dollar.
The rupee opened at either 95.64 or 95.69 per US dollar, with reports citing a 7- or 9-paise gain.
A weaker dollar supported the rupee, while elevated crude prices and importer demand limited its advance.
The Reserve Bank of India’s intervention has helped contain volatility and keep the currency in a narrow range.
Brent crude traded near $93.56 per barrel as Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz restrictions sustained supply concerns.
The RBI expects at least $80 billion in inflows, but experts say $56.85 billion mobilised so far has not significantly strengthened the rupee.
- Who
- The Indian rupee, the Reserve Bank of India, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, importers, foreign investors and currency-market participants.
- What
- The rupee gained slightly against the US dollar but remained under pressure from oil prices, importer demand and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Where
- India’s interbank foreign-exchange market, with related pressures from global oil markets and the Strait of Hormuz.
- When
- Friday, 21 August; the rupee had traded within a narrow range during the week.
- Why
- A weaker US dollar supported the rupee, while high oil prices, geopolitical risks, reduced discounted Russian crude availability and limited foreign participation weighed on it.
Factors Supporting the Rupee
Factors Pressuring the Rupee
Weaker US dollar
Factors Supporting the Rupee
The dollar weakened overseas, supporting the rupee and making it easier for the RBI to support the currency.
Factors Pressuring the Rupee
The benefit of a softer dollar was offset by high oil prices, importer demand and other pressures on India’s external position.
RBI intervention and foreign inflows
Factors Supporting the Rupee
RBI intervention has limited declines and intraday volatility, while expected foreign-currency inflows could provide support.
Factors Pressuring the Rupee
Experts said the $56.85 billion mobilised so far has not produced meaningful rupee appreciation because persistent headwinds remain.
Oil supply and geopolitical conditions
Factors Supporting the Rupee
Brent crude prices were slightly lower in futures trading, offering limited relief to the rupee.
Factors Pressuring the Rupee
Middle East tensions, disruptions to refining capacity and restrictions affecting Strait of Hormuz shipping have kept oil prices elevated and increased India’s import-cost risks.
Key facts
- Reported opening rate
- Reports cited 95.64 and 95.69 rupees per US dollar; one said the rupee later rose to 95.65.
- Reported gain
- One report cited 7 paise and two reports cited 9 paise, reflecting differing opening calculations.
- Dollar index
- The dollar index was down 0.15% at 98.74, its lowest level since May.
- Brent crude
- Brent futures traded at $93.56 per barrel, down 0.23%.
- India’s crude dependence
- More than 85% of India’s crude oil requirements are imported.
- Expected foreign-currency inflows
- The RBI expects at least $80 billion from measures announced earlier in the year.
- Mobilised inflows
- About $56.85 billion had been mobilised, including $52.3 billion through FCNR(B) deposits.
- Rupee outlook
- Immediate support was identified at 95.30–95.50, with USD/INR expected to move toward 96.20–96.50.
Quotes
Amit Pabari
Managing director of CR Forex Advisors
“"Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the central bank expects at least USD 80 billion of foreign currency inflows from the measures announced earlier this year to attract dollars into India. So far, around USD 56.85 billion has already been mobilised, including USD 52.3 billion through FCNR(B) deposits,"”
deccanchronicle.com
deccanchronicle.com
Sources
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