3 weeks ago
Nifty, Sensex outlook: GIFT Nifty slips, crude hits multi-week highs
Stocks are small pieces of companies that people can buy and sell in a stock market.
In India, investors watch indexes called the Nifty and Sensex to see how the market is doing.
Before the market opens, a special tool called GIFT Nifty acts like a crystal ball, guessing whether prices will go up or down.
This time, GIFT Nifty pointed down, which suggests the Indian market might start the day weakly.
One big reason is oil, which became more expensive because ships may have trouble passing through a very important waterway called the Strait of Hormuz.
High oil prices worry investors, because they can make it costlier for companies to do business.
Meanwhile, softer-than-expected job numbers in the United States made investors feel calmer about interest rates, which helped markets in Japan and other countries.
In India, foreign investors sold some stocks while local institutions bought more, balancing things out.
Experts say the market will likely move up and down within a range, so investors should be patient and careful.
GIFT Nifty futures fell 44.20 points (0.18%) to 24,615.50, pointing to a negative start for Indian markets on Tuesday after a muted Monday open.
Crude prices hit their highest levels since July 31, with Brent at $88.00 and US crude at $82.45 a barrel, after futures rallied roughly 5% on Monday on doubts over a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
US stocks closed lower on Monday - the S&P 500 down 0.06% to 7,753.12 and the Nasdaq down 0.32% to 26,605.36 - as Intel and other chipmakers declined.
FPIs were net sellers of Indian stocks worth Rs 1,290.29 crore on Monday, while DIIs bought Rs 1,974.76 crore; FPIs had sold Rs 480.24 crore on Friday and were net buyers of Rs 12,921 crore in the first week of August.
Analysts see Nifty support at 24,500-24,600 and resistance at 24,650-24,700 as the market trades range-bound, with India VIX at 12.24 and views split between 'buy-on-dips' and caution.
- Who
- Indian equity investors, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs), with analysts from Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Kotak Securities, LKP Securities, SBI Securities, Religare Broking and other brokerages.
- What
- Nifty, Sensex and Bank Nifty are expected to open with a negative bias after GIFT Nifty futures fell 44.20 points to 24,615.50, with support seen at 24,500-24,600 and resistance at 24,650-24,700.
- Where
- Indian stock markets on the National Stock Exchange, with Asian markets (Japan's Nikkei, South Korea's KOSPI, Hong Kong's Hang Seng) and US markets providing regional cues.
- When
- Tuesday's trading session; cues include Monday's US market close, a muted Monday start for India, last month's US jobs data and the Q1FY27 earnings season in its final leg.
- Why
- Crude's jump to multi-week highs on uncertainty over reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lingering inflation worries dampened risk sentiment, though softer-than-expected US jobs data and easing geopolitical tensions kept the broader outlook positive.
Cautious view
Positive view
Market direction
Cautious view
Evolving geopolitical developments in West Asia and crude price fluctuations could bring heightened volatility, so investors should remain cautious and selective (Religare Broking).
Positive view
Resilient domestic fundamentals, easing geopolitical concerns and stock-specific opportunities support a positive bias for Indian equities as the Q1FY27 earnings season winds down (Motilal Oswal Financial Services).
Trading strategy
Cautious view
The market is range-bound and indecisive - indicators show bulls and bears in a fight, and a fresh uptrend needs confirmation above 24,650-24,700 before it can extend (Kotak Securities, LKP Securities).
Positive view
Adopt a 'buy-on-dips' strategy favouring relatively stronger sectors and stocks, since softer-than-expected US jobs data reduces near-term rate-hike expectations and supports risk assets (Religare Broking).
Key facts
- GIFT Nifty Futures (Tuesday)
- 24,615.50, down 44.20 points (0.18%)
- Brent crude
- $88.00 per barrel, highest since July 31
- US crude
- $82.45 per barrel
- S&P 500 (Monday close)
- 7,753.12, down 0.06%
- Nasdaq Composite (Monday close)
- 26,605.36, down 0.32%
- Spot gold
- $4,409.81 an ounce, up 0.5%
- India VIX
- 12.24
- Equity flows (Monday)
- FPIs net sellers Rs 1,290.29 crore; DIIs net buyers Rs 1,974.76 crore
Quotes
Shrikant Chouhan
Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities
“Above this level, the market could move up to the 200-day SMA or 24,800-24,850/80,000-80,200. Upside move could continue, lifting the market to 25,000-25,100/80,600-80,900. On the downside, below 24,600-78,400, the market could retest levels of 24,500-24,450/78,100-77,900. A breakdown of 24,450/77,900 could accelerate selling pressure, and it could slip to 24,200/77,200.”
businesstoday.in
“For traders now, 24,650/78,800 and 24,700/79,000 would act as immediate breakout levels. Above these, the market could rally to 24,800–24,850 / 79,300–79,500. On the flip side, below 24,500/78,300, selling pressure may accelerate. Below this, the market could retest levels of 24,400–24,350 / 78,000–77,800.”
businesstoday.in








