2 weeks ago
Indian Markets Face Cautious Open as Technical Weakness Persists
Indian stock markets were expected to begin cautiously on Tuesday and Wednesday.
GIFT Nifty, which gives an early hint about the market opening, was lower on both days.
Stock markets in the United States and parts of Asia also fell.
Investors were worried about conflict in the Middle East, expensive oil and higher borrowing costs.
Foreign investors sold Indian shares on both reported sessions.
Indian institutions bought shares, which provided some support.
Chart experts said Nifty and Sensex were showing signs of weakness.
Nifty Bank was moving mostly sideways instead of clearly rising or falling.
Analysts advised investors to be careful and watch important support and resistance levels.
GIFT Nifty pointed to weaker or muted domestic openings, falling 85.20 points on Tuesday and 24.60 points on Wednesday.
Asian markets and Wall Street declined amid Middle East uncertainty, rising oil prices, inflation concerns and higher bond yields.
Foreign portfolio investors sold Indian equities worth Rs 2,535.10 crore on Monday and Rs 2,579.31 crore on Tuesday, while domestic institutions remained net buyers.
Analysts identified bearish technical signals for Nifty and Sensex, with support near 24,000–24,250 for Nifty and 76,800–77,000 for Sensex.
Nifty Bank remained range-bound, with resistance around 57,500–58,000 and broader support between 56,500 and 57,000.
- Who
- Indian investors, foreign portfolio investors, domestic institutional investors and market analysts from Religare Broking, Kotak Securities, Choice Equity Broking, Angel One, LKP Securities, SAMCO Securities, SBI Securities and Bajaj Broking.
- What
- Indian equity markets faced cautious outlooks, with weaker GIFT Nifty indications, bearish or weakening technical signals for Nifty and Sensex, and range-bound conditions in Nifty Bank.
- Where
- Indian markets, with signals from GIFT Nifty, Asian markets, Wall Street, global bond markets and oil markets.
- When
- Tuesday and Wednesday, following the preceding sessions' global market moves and investor-flow data.
- Why
- Subdued sentiment was linked to Middle East uncertainty, the US-Iran ceasefire ending, concerns about oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, inflation, borrowing costs and foreign investor selling.
Cautious or Bearish View
Supportive or Rebound View
Nifty direction
Cautious or Bearish View
Analysts cited bearish candles, closes below key moving averages, weakening RSI and negative MACD signals, with possible declines toward 24,050–24,000 or lower support zones.
Supportive or Rebound View
A technical rebound remained possible if Nifty reclaimed resistance levels around 24,240–24,500.
Sensex outlook
Cautious or Bearish View
The Sensex was described as trading below key moving averages, with weakening momentum and risk of a further corrective phase if 76,800–77,000 failed.
Supportive or Rebound View
Holding the 77,000–77,400 or 76,800–77,000 support areas could encourage a rebound toward 77,600–77,800 or higher resistance zones.
Nifty Bank trend
Cautious or Bearish View
A breakdown below 57,000 could extend the corrective move toward 56,500–56,200, while failure to clear 58,000 would keep the index in consolidation.
Supportive or Rebound View
Nifty Bank remained above several longer-term moving averages in one assessment, and a move above 57,500–58,000 or 58,000 could open a path toward 58,500–58,700.
Key facts
- GIFT Nifty Tuesday
- Down 85.20 points, or 0.35%, at 24,307.50.
- GIFT Nifty Wednesday
- Down 24.60 points, or 0.10%, at 24,205.50.
- Foreign investor flows
- FPIs sold Rs 2,535.10 crore on Monday and Rs 2,579.31 crore on Tuesday.
- Domestic institutional flows
- DIIs bought Rs 5,101.46 crore on Monday and Rs 1,651.53 crore on Tuesday.
- Nifty levels
- Support was identified around 24,050–24,000 on Wednesday, with resistance near 24,240; earlier support was near 24,220–24,200.
- Sensex levels
- Support was placed at 76,800–77,000, with a potential rebound toward 77,600–77,800 if that zone holds.
- Nifty Bank range
- The broader consolidation range remained 56,500–58,700, with resistance near 58,000.
- India VIX
- Settled at 11.32 in the Tuesday outlook and 11.39 in the Wednesday outlook.
Quotes
Shrikant Chouhan
Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities
“Going forward, the 57,500-57,600 zone, where the 20-day EMA is placed, will act as a crucial resistance area. On the downside, the 56,900-56,800 zone, coinciding with the 100-day EMA, is expected to provide immediate support. A decisive breakout above the resistance zone or a breakdown below the support zone is likely to determine the next directional move, leading to a sustained trending phase in the Bank Nifty”
businesstoday.in
“For day traders now, 24,400/78,000 would act as an immediate resistance zone for the bulls. If the market succeeds in trading above this level, it could bounce back to 24,500-24,620/80,200-80,500. On the flip side, a break below 24,220/77,500 could accelerate selling pressure. Below this, the market could retest the levels of 24,100-24,050/77,200-77,000.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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