1 week ago
COVID Antivirals Show Smaller Benefits Among Immune Australians
COVID antiviral medicines helped many high-risk people earlier in the pandemic.
New research suggests they may help less now because most Australians have vaccine protection or immunity from past infections.
The virus has also changed, and newer variants appear less severe than the first ones.
Paxlovid may still lower the chance of hospitalisation or death for some people.
However, the strongest trials in vaccinated people did not find a clear benefit.
Lagevrio showed even less convincing evidence.
The medicines can cause side effects and may interact dangerously with other drugs.
Older people and people with health conditions should ask their doctor whether treatment is suitable.
Australian authorities will review the drugs’ costs and benefits in 2026.
Early trials reported an 89% reduction in severe illness for Paxlovid and a 30% reduction for Lagevrio.
Two randomized trials in vaccinated people found no reduction in severe outcomes, hospitalisation, or death.
A meta-analysis of 35 observational studies linked Paxlovid to 40% fewer hospitalisations and 67% fewer deaths.
Lagevrio was not linked to a significant reduction in hospitalisation, and its mortality results were mixed.
Australia spent more than A$2 billion on the drugs from mid-2022 to mid-2025, with access due for review in 2026.
- Who
- Older Australians and people with underlying health conditions are the main groups offered subsidised antivirals; researchers evaluated the drugs’ effectiveness.
- What
- A review found that COVID antivirals, particularly Lagevrio, may provide less benefit than early trials suggested, while Paxlovid may still offer some protection.
- Where
- Australia.
- When
- Early trials were reported in 2021; the medicines entered Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme in 2022; evidence and spending were assessed through 2025, with a further review planned for 2026.
- Why
- Widespread vaccination, immunity from previous infections, and changes in the virus have reduced the risk of severe COVID-19, making the drugs’ additional benefit smaller.
Key facts
- Early Paxlovid trial
- Reported an 89% reduction in severe illness.
- Early Lagevrio trial
- Reported a 30% reduction in severe illness.
- Paxlovid observational findings
- Associated with a 40% reduction in hospitalisation and a 67% reduction in death.
- Lagevrio observational findings
- Not associated with a significant reduction in hospitalisation; mortality results were mixed.
- Australian government spending
- More than A$2 billion on Paxlovid and Lagevrio from mid-2022 to mid-2025.
- COVID deaths in Australia in 2025
- There were 2,227 deaths involving COVID, compared with 1,784 involving influenza.
- Planned review
- The Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee is scheduled to review the antivirals later in 2026.
Sources
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