3 weeks ago
Dollar Rises as Oil Rally Fuels Inflation Concerns
Imagine currencies are players in a game.
The dollar scored its best day in two weeks.
This happened because oil got more expensive.
Oil got more expensive because a deal was reported.
The deal would stop some ships from passing through a very important waterway called the Strait of Hormuz.
When ships cannot pass, fuel costs more, and people worry prices will go up.
When people worry about prices going up, some think the central bank might raise interest rates.
Rising energy costs also made the dollar stronger against other money, so currencies like Japan's yen became weaker, crossing 158 yen per dollar.
Investors are watching closely and waiting to see what the US jobs report says on Friday.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.2% on Thursday, its biggest gain since July 23, after three straight days of declines.
Brent crude rallied following a reported deal to prohibit US, Israeli and other 'hostile' vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
The dollar has advanced 1.5% since the US attack on Iran in late February disrupted global energy flows.
All Group of 10 currencies fell against the dollar, with the yen weakening beyond 158 per US dollar for the first time in nearly a week.
Rising energy costs fueled inflation concerns that could prompt the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates in September, while traders await Friday's US jobs report.
- Who
- US dollar and Group of 10 currencies, with Federal Reserve policy in focus; analysts from Pioneer Investments, Banco StoneX and Brown Brothers Harriman.
- What
- The dollar posted its strongest day in two weeks as oil prices advanced on fading optimism over easing Middle East tensions.
- Where
- Global financial markets, linked to the Strait of Hormuz and US-Iran tensions.
- When
- On the Thursday covered by the report, following three days of dollar declines.
- Why
- A reported deal restricting US, Israeli and other vessels in the Strait of Hormuz pushed up energy costs, raising inflation concerns that could prompt a September Fed rate hike.
Market Optimism
Analyst Skepticism
Easing Middle East tensions
Market Optimism
Markets had been optimistic that Middle East tensions were easing, and the dollar fell for three straight days.
Analyst Skepticism
Analysts call the rebound an 'unwind of rosy expectations'; Pioneer Investments' Paresh Upadhyaya says the US is unlikely to accept many terms of the reported deal without significant changes.
Inflation and Fed policy
Market Optimism
If tensions ease and energy prices cool, inflation pressure would fade, reducing the need for aggressive Fed action.
Analyst Skepticism
With tensions elevated, investors are pricing higher global inflation risk, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to hike rates in September.
Key facts
- Dollar index move
- +0.2% on Thursday, biggest gain since July 23
- Oil benchmark
- Brent crude, rallied on reported Strait of Hormuz deal
- Dollar gain since US attack on Iran
- 1.5% since late February
- Yen level
- Beyond 158 per US dollar, first time in nearly a week
- Fed rate outlook
- Possible interest-rate hike in September
- US productivity
- Accelerated faster than expected in Q2, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics
- Market positioning
- One-day dollar option costs highest since July 30; traders await Friday's jobs report
Quotes
Paresh Upadhyaya
Strategist at Pioneer Investments
““With tensions elevated, investors are immediately beginning to price higher global inflation risk,””
livemint.com
““Solid US productivity growth is giving the dollar a fresh tailwind,””
livemint.com









