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El Niño Threatens India's Sugar Output and Raises Price Concerns
El Niño is a weather pattern that can bring drier conditions.
The article says it is growing stronger and may continue into early 2027.
Dry weather in Maharashtra could mean less sugarcane and less sugar made from each harvest.
Water shortages could also make it harder for sugar mills to work.
Sugar prices have already risen, and the government points to several reasons, including weather, stronger demand, and tighter supplies around the world.
The article also says some traders may be speculating or hoarding sugar.
India has enough sugar in stock for now, according to the report.
A poor harvest could still make supply tighter and affect farmers, mill workers, and ethanol production.
Drought conditions in Maharashtra and a strengthening El Niño could reduce India's sugarcane yields and sugar recovery in 2026-27.
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts that El Niño is very likely to persist through February 2027.
Retail sugar prices reached Rs 55.21 per kg on October 8, 2026, up 18.8% from a year earlier.
The government cited adverse weather, festive-season demand, tighter global supplies, and alleged speculation and hoarding as factors behind rising prices.
India's current stocks are expected to meet domestic demand, but prolonged dry conditions could tighten supply and affect farmers, mills, and ethanol production.
- Who
- India's sugarcane farmers, sugar mills, consumers, and the sugar industry.
- What
- A strengthening El Niño and drought risk could reduce sugar output and add pressure to prices.
- Where
- India, with Maharashtra identified as a major sugarcane-producing state facing drought conditions.
- When
- The 2026-27 season; the WMO forecasts El Niño may persist through February 2027.
- Why
- Rainfall deficits and water shortages could reduce cane yields and sugar recovery, while demand and global supply pressures are also contributing to higher prices.
Key facts
- Retail sugar price
- Rs 55.21 per kg on October 8, 2026.
- Annual price increase
- 18.8% over the past year, according to the article.
- Earlier price
- Rs 46.49 per kg on October 8, 2025.
- El Niño outlook
- The WMO forecast near-100% likelihood of persistence through February 2027.
- Farmers supported by sugarcane
- Nearly five crore, according to the article.
- Jobs supported
- Around five lakh in sugar mills and allied industries.
- Current domestic supply
- Existing stocks are expected to meet domestic demand; the article says India is not facing an immediate shortage.
Quotes
Celeste Saulo
Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization
“El Nino is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950,”
NDTV
Sources
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