2 days ago
Tin Prices Seen Staying Elevated on AI Demand and Supply Constraints
Tin is a metal used in manufacturing and electronic products.
Its price has risen sharply this year because factories, chipmakers and artificial intelligence companies need it.
Spending on AI data centres and computer chips is expected to remain very large in 2026.
However, some older industries and China’s solar-panel sector are using less tin.
Supplies are also limited, especially because Indonesian exports have not fully recovered.
Possible mining restarts in Myanmar have not happened yet.
Heavy rain also caused a Malaysian company to suspend mining operations.
Analysts therefore expect tin prices to stay high, although prices could ease later in 2026 if supply improves and AI spending growth slows.
Tin prices have risen more than 35% this year, reaching a record $59,040 per tonne in June before retreating to $55,030.
BMI raised its 2026 average tin-price forecast to $51,500 per tonne from $49,000.
Manufacturing, semiconductor and AI-related demand remains resilient, although traditional end-use sectors and China’s photovoltaic sector are weaker.
Global supply remains constrained, with Indonesian shipments still 15% below last year despite a July rebound in exports.
Low exchange stocks and uncertain mining recoveries in Myanmar, alongside a Malaysian mining suspension, could sustain market volatility.
- Who
- Tin producers, manufacturers, semiconductor and AI-related companies, commodity traders, BMI, the International Tin Association and SunSirs.
- What
- Tin prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 because resilient technology-related demand is meeting constrained supply.
- Where
- The global tin market, including supply developments in Indonesia, Myanmar and Malaysia and trading on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.
- When
- The outlook concerns 2026; the report was published on September 8, 2026.
- Why
- Demand from manufacturing, semiconductors and AI-related sectors remains strong, while supply recovery has been slower than expected and exchange stocks remain low.
Reasons Prices Could Stay High
Reasons Prices Could Ease
Demand outlook
Reasons Prices Could Stay High
BMI expects strong semiconductor and AI-related demand, investor sentiment and continued supply shortages to keep prices elevated in 2026.
Reasons Prices Could Ease
Demand is mixed: traditional end-use sectors are weak, China’s photovoltaic sector has slowed, and AI capital-expenditure growth may decelerate later in the year.
Supply conditions
Reasons Prices Could Stay High
Indonesian exports remain below last year, Myanmar’s possible mining restart has not materialized, and Malaysian mining operations were suspended after heavy rainfall damage.
Reasons Prices Could Ease
Indonesian exports rebounded in July, and BMI expects some stabilization of supply issues in the fourth quarter.
Near-term market tightness
Reasons Prices Could Stay High
Low stocks on major exchanges could expose the market to further volatility.
Reasons Prices Could Ease
The rapid drawdown in visible exchange stocks eased in August, while the LME contango was described as indicating little near-term shortage.
Key facts
- Current tin price
- $55,030 per tonne after reaching a record $59,040 per tonne in June
- Year-to-date gain
- More than 35%
- 2026 average price forecast
- BMI forecasts $51,500 per tonne, up from its previous $49,000 forecast
- AI capital expenditure
- Estimated at $785 billion in 2026
- Indonesia exports
- 4,564.53 tonnes in July 2026, up 20.4% year-on-year
- Indonesian shipment shortfall
- Cumulative shipments remained 15% below the previous year
- Market stocks
- Tin stocks remained low on the London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange as of September 2026
Quotes
Tom Langston
Senior Market Analyst with the International Tin Association
“Macroeconomic headwinds have reasserted themselves amid hawkish signals from Jackson Hole last week and renewed US-Iran hostilities. Speculative enthusiasm has also cooled, particularly in China, where SHFE (Shanghai Financial Exchange) open interest has now fallen for three consecutive weeks.”
thehindubusinessline.com
“We have revised up our annual average tin price forecast for 2026 to $51,500/tonne from $49,000/tonne as prices remain on a pedestal since the start of the surge in AI capex that has resulted in a sharp rise in demand for tin from the semiconductor industry.”
thehindubusinessline.com
Sources
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