5 days ago
Memory Crisis Threatens Cheap Phones as Smartphone Prices Stay High
A shortage of memory parts is making smartphones more expensive to build.
This could make phone prices stay high for several years.
IDC expects fewer smartphones to be sold worldwide in 2026.
The cheapest phones are being hit hardest because companies make little money from them.
Some manufacturers may stop making as many phones that cost less than $100.
People in emerging markets could have fewer affordable choices and may keep their phones longer.
Bigger companies such as Apple, Samsung and Huawei may handle the higher costs better.
Foldable phones are expected to be one part of the market that keeps growing.
IDC cut its 2026 global smartphone forecast to a 16.7% year-on-year shipment decline, or roughly 200 million fewer phones.
Memory prices are expected to keep rising until at least 2028, while average smartphone prices may fall only 1–2% annually from 2028.
Phones priced below $100 are under the greatest pressure, with manufacturers reducing low-end models as margins shrink.
Apple, Samsung and Huawei are considered better positioned because of their scale, pricing power and stronger premium portfolios.
Foldable phone shipments are forecast to grow 12.6% to 22.9 million units in 2026 and reach about 27 million in 2027.
- Who
- Smartphone manufacturers, consumers, IDC, and major companies including Apple, Samsung and Huawei.
- What
- A memory shortage is raising production costs and threatening cheap smartphones while global shipments are expected to decline.
- Where
- The impact concerns the global smartphone market, including emerging markets and developed markets such as the United States and United Kingdom.
- When
- The effects are expected to intensify in the second half of 2026, with memory prices potentially remaining elevated until at least 2028.
- Why
- Memory costs are rising, low-end phone margins are thin, and manufacturers are shifting toward more expensive devices.
Key facts
- 2026 shipment forecast
- A 16.7% year-on-year global decline, revised from 13.9%.
- Estimated shipment reduction
- Around 200 million fewer smartphones.
- Memory-price outlook
- Prices are expected to continue increasing until at least 2028.
- Low-end segment
- About 173 million smartphones priced below $100 shipped last year.
- Q2 2026 low-end decline
- The under-$100 segment fell almost 60% year on year.
- Foldable shipments in 2026
- Forecast to grow 12.6% to 22.9 million units.
- Foldable shipments in 2027
- Forecast to reach around 27 million units.
Sources
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