3 weeks ago
Indian smartphone market faces tougher H2 as prices rise
Smartphones contain tiny parts called memory chips, and those chips have become much more expensive.
Because of this, phones in India now cost more than they used to.
When things cost more, people buy fewer of them, so phone sales are going down.
Big research companies like IDC and Counterpoint study these sales.
They predict that in the second half of 2026, phone sales in India will drop by more than 15 percent.
The first half of the year already had the lowest sales in five years.
The cheapest phones were hurt the most, because companies could no longer make them cheaply and still earn money.
Some people are choosing to buy more expensive phones instead of cheap ones.
Brands like Vivo, Samsung, Oppo, and Apple are still selling many phones, with Vivo selling the most in India.
IDC projects Indian smartphone shipments to fall more than 15% in H2-2026, cutting full-year volumes to roughly 128-130 million units from 152 million last year.
Counterpoint estimates a 13% decline for 2026, citing memory prices that have nearly quadrupled since September 2025 and handset prices up around 15% by end of Q2.
Q2 shipments fell 11.1% year-on-year to 33.2 million units, and first-half volume of 64.2 million was the lowest in five years, though market value still grew 3.6%.
Chinese brands were hit hardest: iQOO fell 61%, realme 14.2%, vivo 13.9%, Poco 12.3%, Xiaomi 10%, Oppo 8.5% and OnePlus 2.5%, with Vivo remaining leader at 18.4% share.
The below-$100 segment collapsed 74.3% to a 4.5% share, average selling prices hit a record $315, and Apple led by value with a 27% share.
- Who
- Indian smartphone consumers and manufacturers, including Vivo, Samsung, Oppo, Xiaomi, realme, and Apple, with market analysis from IDC and Counterpoint.
- What
- Rising memory costs are pushing up smartphone prices, and shipments are expected to fall by more than 15% in the second half of 2026.
- Where
- India.
- When
- 2026, with reports covering Q2 data released on Tuesday; the weaker trend extends through H2-2026.
- Why
- Memory prices nearly quadrupled since September 2025, driving handset prices up about 15% and hurting affordability and demand.
Key facts
- Full-year 2026 shipment forecast (IDC)
- 128-130 million units, down from 152 million in 2025
- Q2 2026 shipments
- 33.2 million units, down 11.1% year-on-year
- Memory price increase
- Nearly four times since September 2025
- Smartphone price increase
- Around 15% by end of Q2 2026
- Average selling price
- Record $315 in Q2, up 14.4% year-on-year
- Q2 market leader
- Vivo with 18.4% share; Samsung 16.4%, Oppo 13.8%
- Entry-level segment (below $100)
- Share fell to 4.5% from 15.6% as shipments dropped 74.3%
- Apple's value share
- 27%, leading the market by value; iPhone 17 top-shipped in Q1 and Q2
Sources
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