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Australia Lifts Wheat Forecast as Black Sea Demand Grows
Australia expects to harvest 29.9 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season.
This is more than the government predicted in June.
Good winter rain helped the crops grow well in several important farming areas.
The harvest is still expected to be smaller than last season’s 36 million tons because farmers planted less land.
Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has made it harder to get wheat from the Black Sea region.
This is encouraging buyers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to look for Australian wheat.
Australia’s wheat exports are expected to be especially strong in September.
Wheat prices may rise because both local and overseas buyers want more grain.
Australia’s Department of Agriculture raised its 2026/27 wheat forecast to 29.9 million tons, about 12% above its June estimate.
The projected harvest would be Australia’s eighth-largest on record but remains below last season’s 36 million tons because acreage has declined.
Strong winter and above-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria improved crop conditions and lifted yield potential.
Russia-Ukraine fighting has constrained Black Sea wheat supplies, increasing demand for Australian grain in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Australian wheat prices are forecast to rise about 6%, supported by domestic feed demand and international interest in high-protein varieties.
- Who
- Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Australian farmers, and international wheat buyers.
- What
- Australia raised its forecast for the 2026/27 wheat crop to 29.9 million tons as weather and export demand improved.
- Where
- Australia, particularly South Australia, Victoria, and Western Australia; demand is rising in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
- When
- The revised forecast was released Tuesday; the report also cites export expectations for September.
- Why
- Strong rainfall improved crop prospects, while Russia-Ukraine fighting constrained Black Sea supplies and increased demand for Australian wheat.
Key facts
- Revised crop forecast
- 29.9 million tons for Australia’s 2026/27 wheat crop
- Change from June forecast
- About 12% higher
- Comparison with previous season
- Below last season’s 36 million tons
- Record ranking
- Projected to be Australia’s eighth-biggest harvest on record
- Western Australia exports
- Nearly 1 million tons forecast for September, 29% above the 15-year September average
- Expected price change
- Australian wheat prices are forecast to rise about 6%
- Crop conditions
- Above-average rainfall in South Australia and Victoria from May to July helped create well-above-average yield potential
Quotes
Australian Department of Agriculture
Australian government department responsible for the agricultural production forecast
“This has resulted in the maturity of most crops being three to four weeks early, with well-above-average yield potential.”
livemint.com
Rod Baker
Analyst with Bendigo Bank
“Australia’s September wheat export program is among the strongest on record.”
livemint.com
Sources
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