3 weeks ago
Wheat Climbs Ahead of USDA Report on Tightening Grain Supply
Wheat is a grain used to make bread and other foods.
People buy and sell wheat in special markets, and the price changes depending on how much wheat is available.
Lately, the price of wheat has gone up.
That's because dry weather in the United States hurt the wheat crops, and farmers had also planted less wheat than before.
At the same time, Russia and Ukraine are fighting, and they are attacking ships and places that store grain.
Together, these two countries send a lot of the world's wheat to other countries by sea, through a place called the Black Sea.
People worry that the wheat won't be able to get through safely.
Because of this, bread and other food prices could go up.
Turkey also stopped some of its ships from traveling in the Black Sea for a little while because it is dangerous.
Next week, experts in America will share a big report about how much grain the world has, and everyone is watching to see if there will be enough.
Chicago wheat futures rose by as much as 2.5%, reaching their highest price since July 30.
The USDA's monthly supply-demand report, due Wednesday, is expected to show declining US and global grain supplies.
Dry conditions and reduced planting are expected to cut US wheat production, while US corn yields edge downward.
Attacks between Russia and Ukraine on grain infrastructure and vessels have renewed concerns about Black Sea export disruptions.
Turkey temporarily halted Black Sea transits for its vessels, while investors have been adding to net bearish wheat bets.
- Who
- Wheat traders and analysts, the US Department of Agriculture, Russia and Ukraine as exporters, and Turkey as a shipper.
- What
- Wheat futures rose as much as 2.5% ahead of a USDA report expected to show declining US and global grain supplies.
- Where
- Chicago (futures market), the United States, the Black Sea region, Russia, Ukraine, and Turkey.
- When
- In the week of the USDA's monthly report, which is due Wednesday; Turkey halted transits over the weekend.
- Why
- Dry conditions, reduced planting, and Russia-Ukraine attacks on grain infrastructure and vessels threatening Black Sea exports.
Bearish View
Bullish View
Wheat supply and price outlook
Bearish View
World supplies remain ample; investors added to net bearish bets in Chicago wheat futures, and the USDA last month hiked production estimates for Russia and Ukraine.
Bullish View
Global fundamentals are strengthening; dry conditions and reduced planting point to declining US and world supplies, and Black Sea attacks threaten export reliability.
Key facts
- Price move
- Chicago wheat futures rose as much as 2.5%
- Price level
- Highest since July 30
- Key event
- USDA monthly supply-demand report expected Wednesday
- Expected change
- Declining US and global wheat and corn supplies; US corn yield edging downward
- Black Sea export share
- Russia and Ukraine ship over a quarter of world wheat and a 10th of corn
- Turkey action
- Temporarily halted Black Sea transits for its vessels over the weekend
- Investor positioning
- Net bearish bets in Chicago wheat futures increased
- USDA prior move
- Last month hiked Russia and Ukraine wheat production estimates
Quotes
Hightower Report
Bloomberg market analysis report
“The overly bearish sentiment for wheat has shifted to neutral.”
livemint.com
“Global fundamentals are strengthening.”
livemint.com








