6 days ago
Wheat Prices Reach Three-Year High as Black Sea Crisis Deepens
Wheat prices have risen to their highest level in about three years.
Wheat is used to make many foods, so this price change matters to people around the world.
Fighting around the Black Sea has made it harder for ships to carry wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
The two countries produce about one-quarter of the world’s wheat.
Experts say there is still wheat in the region, but much of it is trapped because ports and shipping routes are unsafe or unavailable.
Other routes are not large enough to replace the lost port capacity.
Prices also increased because of concerns about hot weather in Europe.
The U.S.-Iran war and El Nino-related weather risks are adding to the uncertainty.
A global grains group has lowered its forecast for wheat production in 2026-2027.
Chicago wheat contracts rose by the daily limit Wednesday before climbing further Thursday.
Wheat traded at $7.55 a bushel, near its highest close since July 2023.
Tit-for-tat strikes have stalled exports from grain terminals and ships in the Black Sea.
Russia and Ukraine together produce about a quarter of the world’s wheat.
Weather risks, the U.S.-Iran war and reduced production forecasts are also pushing prices higher.
- Who
- Russia and Ukraine are the main countries involved in the disrupted wheat trade; traders, analysts and exporters are responding.
- What
- Wheat prices reached a three-year high as Black Sea exports stalled amid strikes and worsening tensions.
- Where
- The disruption is centered on the Black Sea, including the ports of Odesa and Novorossiysk.
- When
- Prices surged Wednesday and Thursday; exports have fallen sharply since July, and wheat is on track for its largest monthly gain since February 2022.
- Why
- Strikes against grain-carrying ships and export terminals have restricted shipments, while weather concerns and the U.S.-Iran war are also supporting prices.
Key facts
- Latest wheat price
- $7.55 a bushel, up 0.9% in the session
- Recent price increase
- Chicago wheat contracts are about 30% above their end-of-June low
- Production share
- Russia and Ukraine together account for around 25% of global wheat production
- Affected ports
- Odesa and Novorossiysk
- Export conditions
- Black Sea wheat exports have stalled amid strikes on ships and terminals
- Production forecast
- The International Grains Council downgraded its 2026-2027 wheat production forecast
- Weather factor
- Sustained heat in Europe was cited as a reason for the lower forecast
Quotes
Andrick Payen
Rabobank analyst commenting on alternative grain export routes
“those routes are unlikely to offset the port capacity lost at Odesa and Novorossiysk”
livemint.com
Andrey Sizov
Agricultural commodities analyst commenting on the exceptional market disruption
“Nothing comparable has happened in the history of the modern grain market: neither in 2010, when Russia imposed its grain export ban, nor in the first half of 2022, after the war began”
livemint.com
Sources
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