1 week ago
China’s Iran Ties Are Pragmatic, Unequal and Limited
China and Iran work together, especially on buying and selling oil.
China buys most of Iran’s exported oil, which helps Iran earn money despite sanctions.
However, Iran is much less important to China because it makes up less than 1% of China’s trade.
China also has invested far less in Iran than some large announcements suggested.
Chinese companies worry about being punished by United States sanctions.
China has not publicly promised to protect Iran militarily.
Reports about Chinese weapons or military supplies to Iran have mostly not been confirmed.
Instead, China tries to keep good relationships with Iran and with Iran’s rivals.
This means the partnership is useful but not as close or strategic as it may appear.
China buys about 90% of Iran’s oil exports but Iran represents less than 1% of China’s commerce.
Beijing’s confirmed investment in Iran is estimated at $2 billion to $3 billion, far below the $400 billion headline figure.
China’s economic relationship with Iran is much smaller than its partnerships with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Chinese military support for Iran remains limited, with alleged weapons or dual-use transfers largely unconfirmed.
Beijing continues diplomatic engagement with Tehran while balancing relations with the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
- Who
- China, Iran, the United States and their regional partners; Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese and Iranian officials are central to the reported diplomacy.
- What
- The article examines China’s economic, diplomatic and military ties with Iran and argues that they are pragmatic, asymmetric and limited.
- Where
- The relationship centers on China, Iran and the wider Middle East, with diplomatic talks in Beijing.
- When
- The scrutiny intensified in late August; related China-Iran talks took place on August 17, ahead of a planned September Trump-Xi summit.
- Why
- The issue gained attention after the United States threatened economic punishment for countries doing business with Iran and sought to further isolate Tehran.
China-Iran partnership appears strategic
China-Iran partnership is mainly pragmatic
Economic dependence
China-Iran partnership appears strategic
China is Iran’s most important economic partner, buys about 90% of its oil exports and provides a financial lifeline despite sanctions.
China-Iran partnership is mainly pragmatic
The relationship is highly unequal: Iran represents less than 1% of China’s commerce, and Chinese investment is modest compared with commitments in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Strategic alignment
China-Iran partnership appears strategic
Iran’s membership in the BRICS and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, along with China’s role in the 2023 Iran-Saudi rapprochement, supports the view that Beijing and Tehran share opposition to United States influence.
China-Iran partnership is mainly pragmatic
China’s ties with Iran are described as pragmatic rather than deeply aligned; Beijing balances Tehran against the United States and Iran’s regional rivals, while its relationship with Russia is considerably closer.
Military support
China-Iran partnership appears strategic
Reports of Chinese air-defense systems, missile-propellant ingredients and other dual-use goods suggest that China may assist Iran indirectly.
China-Iran partnership is mainly pragmatic
China and Iran have not publicly confirmed most alleged transfers, Beijing denied a report about planned supersonic anti-ship missiles, and China has stopped short of providing Iran with security guarantees.
Key facts
- China’s share of Iran’s oil exports
- China buys approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
- Trade imbalance
- China absorbs roughly one-third of Iran’s trade, while Iran accounts for less than 1% of China’s commerce.
- Strategic cooperation agreement
- A 2021 agreement reportedly envisioned up to $400 billion in Chinese investment in Iran.
- Confirmed investment
- Only about $2 billion to $3 billion in investment has been confirmed since the agreement, according to the article.
- Foreign direct investment stock
- China’s official data put its investment stock in Iran at $4.5 billion at the end of 2024, compared with $9.5 billion in the United Arab Emirates.
- Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia
- The American Enterprise Institute’s tracker estimates approximately $16 billion in cumulative Chinese investment in Saudi Arabia since 2005.
- Military cooperation
- China officially stopped selling weapons to Iran in 2005; more recent reports of weapons and dual-use transfers remain largely unconfirmed.
Quotes
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj
Chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London think tank
“Iran looks forward to deepening cooperation with China in various fields and advancing bilateral relations. Iran appreciates China’s upholding of justice and fairness and looks forward to China playing a greater role in maintaining regional peace and stability.”
theprint.in
“Chinese companies have a very limited footprint in Iran relative to other countries in the region. Major Chinese firms have steered clear of Iran due to secondary sanctions risks.”
theprint.in
She Gangzheng
Professor of international relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing
“not the way that China does things in the region.”
theprint.in
Sources
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