6 days ago
Russia cuts 2026 gas forecasts as Europe ends Russian purchases
Russia expects to produce less natural gas in 2026 than it previously thought.
It still expects production to be higher than in 2025.
Russia also reduced its forecast for LNG exports, although it expects them to grow from last year.
Much less Russian pipeline gas is now going to Europe than before the Ukraine war.
Europe used to be Russia’s biggest gas customer.
The European Union is preparing to stop buying the Russian gas it still receives.
Russia says Europe is paying more by buying gas on the spot market.
Russia is trying to sell more gas to Asia and other places instead.
Russia lowered its 2026 natural-gas production forecast to 683.1 billion cubic metres.
The revised production estimate is 5.3 billion cubic metres below the May projection but above 2025 output.
Russia expects 2026 seaborne LNG exports of 35 million tonnes, below its earlier forecast but above 2025 levels.
Russian pipeline-gas exports to Europe fell 44% last year to 18 billion cubic metres.
The European Union is preparing to end its remaining purchases of Russian gas as Russia seeks Asian and other buyers.
- Who
- Russia, the European Union, and European gas buyers.
- What
- Russia cut its 2026 natural-gas production and LNG-export forecasts as European demand for Russian gas declines.
- Where
- Russia, Europe, and alternative markets in Asia and elsewhere.
- When
- The revised forecasts concern 2026; the reported decline in European pipeline exports occurred last year.
- Why
- The Ukraine war and worsening Russia-Europe relations have reduced Russia’s traditional European gas market, while the European Union moves toward ending remaining purchases.
Moscow’s position
European position
Future gas trade
Moscow’s position
Moscow says it is ready to resume gas deliveries to Europe, including through the Nord Stream pipelines, and argues that Europe is harming itself by buying higher-priced spot-market gas.
European position
The European Union is preparing to eliminate its remaining purchases of Russian gas, indicating that Europe is moving away from dependence on Russian supplies.
Replacing the European market
Moscow’s position
Russia is seeking to redirect exports toward Asia and other markets, with LNG expected to expand despite slower growth than previously forecast.
European position
Europe’s reduced purchases and the closure of the Ukrainian transit route have sharply limited Russia’s former role as a major European supplier.
Key facts
- 2026 gas production forecast
- 683.1 billion cubic metres
- Change from May forecast
- Down 5.3 billion cubic metres
- 2025 gas production
- 662.7 billion cubic metres
- 2026 seaborne LNG forecast
- 35 million metric tonnes
- Change from earlier LNG forecast
- Down 5.3 million tonnes
- 2025 pipeline exports to Europe
- 18 billion cubic metres, down 44%
- Pre-war European pipeline exports
- Around 180 billion cubic metres annually in 2018–2019
Sources
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