1 week ago
Macquarie Keeps Eternal and Swiggy Underperform Amid Quick-Commerce Growth
Blinkit and Instamart deliver groceries and other products very quickly.
Blinkit is currently much bigger than Instamart in orders, stores and sales value.
It also loses much less money.
However, Macquarie does not think being bigger automatically means becoming highly profitable.
Many companies, including Zepto, Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes, are competing for the same customers.
This competition may force the companies to keep spending on stores, advertising and deliveries.
Macquarie expects Blinkit to become slightly profitable by FY29, but expects Instamart to keep losing money.
The brokerage also believes investors may already be paying high prices for future quick-commerce growth.
Because of these concerns, it rates both Eternal and Swiggy as Underperform, even though it sees Blinkit as more likely to succeed than Instamart.
Blinkit processed 917 million FY26 orders and recorded $5.5 billion in net order value, ahead of Instamart’s 414 million orders and $3.2 billion gross order value.
Macquarie estimates Blinkit’s FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin at -0.6%, compared with -12.5% for Instamart.
The brokerage raised Eternal’s price target to Rs 225 but retained its Underperform rating; Swiggy remains Underperform with a Rs 230 target.
Macquarie expects Blinkit’s adjusted EBITDA margin to reach 1.7% by FY29, while Instamart is forecast to remain loss-making at -7%.
Macquarie says intense competition, continued investment and demanding valuations could prevent quick-commerce scale from producing expected profits.
- Who
- Macquarie Research assessed Eternal Limited’s Blinkit and Swiggy Limited’s Instamart businesses and retained Underperform ratings on both companies.
- What
- The brokerage evaluated quick-commerce growth, profitability forecasts and valuations, raising Eternal’s price target while keeping Swiggy’s unchanged.
- Where
- The businesses operate in India; the article does not identify a specific location for the research report.
- When
- The assessment was reported using Macquarie Research estimates from August 2026, with the key report dated August 19, 2026.
- Why
- Macquarie expects intense competition and continued spending to limit quick-commerce profitability, while believing future earnings are already substantially reflected in valuations.
Macquarie’s cautious view
Growth and market thesis
Scale versus profitability
Macquarie’s cautious view
Macquarie argues that scale alone will not guarantee top-tier economics because micro-market conditions, competition and fulfillment costs matter.
Growth and market thesis
The growth thesis emphasizes Blinkit’s substantially larger order base, store network and lower losses as evidence that scale can improve the business’s prospects.
Competitive pressure
Macquarie’s cautious view
Macquarie expects competition from Zepto, Amazon Now and Flipkart Minutes to remain intense, requiring continued spending on store density, customer acquisition and delivery capacity.
Growth and market thesis
The expansion of the quick-commerce market and continued growth in orders and order value support the view that the opportunity remains large despite competition.
Valuation outlook
Macquarie’s cautious view
Macquarie says substantial future quick-commerce value is already priced in, including an estimated $15-$20 billion value for Blinkit within Eternal and around $2 billion for Instamart.
Growth and market thesis
A more optimistic interpretation is that strong growth and improving margins could justify those valuations, although the article says this depends on profitability exceeding current expectations.
Key facts
- Eternal rating and target
- Underperform; Rs 225 price target, raised from Rs 190.
- Swiggy rating and target
- Underperform; Rs 230 price target.
- Blinkit FY26 scale
- 917 million orders, 2,243 dark stores and $5.5 billion in net order value.
- Instamart FY26 scale
- 414 million orders, 1,143 dark stores and $3.2 billion in gross order value.
- FY26 adjusted EBITDA margin
- Blinkit: -0.6%; Instamart: -12.5%, according to Macquarie estimates.
- FY29 quick-commerce forecast
- Blinkit’s adjusted EBITDA margin is forecast at 1.7%; Instamart’s at -7.0%.
- FY29 quick-commerce value forecast
- Blinkit’s net order value is forecast at $13.0 billion and Instamart’s gross order value at $6.5 billion.
Quotes
Macquarie Research
Brokerage providing the research report and ratings
“We continue to disagree with the thesis that the overall QC portfolio will achieve top-10% economics simply as a function of time; micro-market dynamics matter”
financialexpress.com
“In Quick Commerce, we continue to see persistent loss-making economics amid broadening competition; in food delivery we see margins near peak levels”
financialexpress.com
Sources
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