1 week ago
India's Growth Outlook Strengthens on Credit and Demand Momentum
Jefferies thinks India's economy is growing strongly.
It expects the economy to grow between 6.5% and 7% in real terms during the current fiscal year.
Businesses may also earn more money in the next fiscal year.
Banks are lending more money to companies and smaller businesses.
This may mean companies are becoming more confident about investing.
People are still spending, as shown by higher tax collections, electricity use, and home sales.
However, higher oil prices could make growth more difficult.
Events in the Middle East could affect India's energy costs.
Jefferies expects India's real GDP to grow 6.5-7% in the current fiscal, with nominal growth of 11-12%.
Corporate earnings growth could rise from 14% currently to 17% in the fiscal year beginning April 2027.
Bank credit grew 19.1% year-on-year in August, while corporate lending rose 21.6% in July.
August GST receipts increased 14.8% year-on-year, and power demand growth accelerated to 9.4% during April-August.
Jefferies warned that Middle East developments and elevated energy prices remain risks, with Brent crude near $106 per barrel.
- Who
- Jefferies, a brokerage, assessed India's economic outlook.
- What
- India is projected to record 6.5-7% real GDP growth in the current fiscal, while corporate earnings growth may accelerate to 17% in the fiscal year beginning April 2027.
- Where
- India, with risks linked to developments in the Middle East and global oil routes.
- When
- The projections concern the current fiscal and the fiscal year beginning April 2027; cited indicators include August, July, April-August, and the first seven months of 2026.
- Why
- Strong credit growth, domestic demand, tax receipts, power use, and housing sales are supporting the outlook, while energy prices remain a risk.
Key facts
- Real GDP forecast
- 6.5-7% growth in the current fiscal
- Nominal GDP forecast
- Around 11-12% growth
- Corporate earnings
- Growth could increase from 14% in the current fiscal to 17% in the fiscal year beginning April 2027
- Bank credit
- Up 19.1% year-on-year at the end of August
- Corporate lending
- Up 21.6% in July
- GST receipts
- Up 14.8% year-on-year in August
- Brent crude
- Around $106 per barrel when the report was issued
Sources
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