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Super El Niño Could Drive 451,000 Heat Deaths
Scientists think a strong El Niño could make many places much hotter than usual.
They estimate that about 451,000 extra people could die from heat during the broader event.
Around 239,000 of those deaths could happen between September 2026 and February 2027.
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and India are expected to face some of the largest increases.
India’s estimate is about 15,800 additional deaths during that six-month period.
The researchers expect about 7,400 of India’s deaths to happen from December through February.
Heat can be especially dangerous for outdoor workers, older people and people without cooling.
The researchers say governments can help by giving heat warnings, providing water and opening cooling spaces.
They also expect heat risks in India and Pakistan to continue rising as summer approaches.
Climate Impact Lab projects 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally during the current El Niño event, with 239,000 possible between September 2026 and February 2027.
Global land temperatures could average 1.2°C above normal, producing an estimated 44% more extremely hot days than usual.
Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and India are projected to record the most additional deaths during the six-month period, with India’s estimate at 15,800.
About 7,400 of India’s projected deaths could occur between December 2026 and February 2027, although the estimate has an uncertainty range of about 1,600 deaths.
Researchers say heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration facilities, health outreach and protections for outdoor workers could reduce the risks.
- Who
- The Climate Impact Lab, a research initiative run by the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute, made the projections.
- What
- Researchers projected additional heat-related deaths linked to a powerful El Niño, including 451,000 during the broader event and 239,000 from September 2026 through February 2027.
- Where
- The projected impacts are global, with particularly high risks in parts of the Global South, including Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and India.
- When
- The current El Niño began in June 2026 and is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2027; the main forecast period is September 2026 to February 2027.
- Why
- El Niño is expected to raise temperatures above normal, while exposure to outdoor work, limited cooling access and weaker health infrastructure can increase heat mortality.
Key facts
- Projected global deaths
- 451,000 additional heat-related deaths during the broader El Niño event.
- Six-month projection
- 239,000 additional deaths from September 2026 through February 2027.
- Expected temperature increase
- Global land temperatures could be about 1.2°C above normal.
- Extreme heat increase
- Researchers estimate 44% more extremely hot days than in a typical year.
- India projection
- 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 through February 2027.
- India winter estimate
- About 7,400 of India’s projected deaths could occur between December 2026 and February 2027.
- India estimate uncertainty
- The India projection has an uncertainty range of about 1,600 deaths.
Sources
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