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India’s Record Wheat Harvest Opens $1.5 Billion Export Window
India harvested a very large amount of wheat in 2025-26.
It produced about 121 million tonnes, while people in India used about 111 million tonnes.
This left the country with extra wheat in storage.
The government also made it easier to export some wheat and wheat products.
A business group said these changes could create more than $1.5 billion in export opportunities.
Countries such as Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria and the Philippines may be important customers.
India can benefit from competitive prices and shorter shipping routes to some markets.
Worldwide wheat production is expected to decrease, while demand is expected to stay strong.
India’s record 121 million metric tonne wheat harvest and surplus stocks could support more than $1.5 billion in exports.
The government moved specified wheat varieties, flour and related products from “Prohibited” to “Free” export status.
ASSOCHAM identified Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria and the Philippines as promising markets for Indian wheat products.
India’s wheat stocks reached 51.3 million metric tonnes, above the 27.5 million tonne buffer norm for July 1.
Global wheat production is projected to fall from 844 million metric tonnes in 2025-26 to about 819 million metric tonnes in 2026-27.
- Who
- India, its wheat producers and processors, the government, ASSOCHAM and potential overseas buyers.
- What
- India’s surplus wheat, competitive prices and relaxed export rules are expected to create more than $1.5 billion in export opportunities.
- Where
- India, with potential export markets including Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Algeria and the Philippines.
- When
- The report was issued on September 2, 2026, using 2025-26 production and May 28, 2026 stock data.
- Why
- Surplus domestic supplies, strong stocks, competitive pricing, shorter shipping routes and disruptions in global wheat markets could increase demand for Indian exports.
Key facts
- Potential export opportunity
- More than $1.5 billion
- India’s wheat production
- 121 million metric tonnes in 2025-26
- Domestic consumption
- Approximately 111 million metric tonnes in 2025-26
- Central Pool stocks
- 51.3 million metric tonnes as of May 28, 2026
- Buffer norm
- 27.5 million metric tonnes for July 1
- India’s wheat MSP
- Approximately $268 per tonne
- International wheat price
- Approximately $303 per tonne in May 2026
- Projected global production
- About 819 million metric tonnes in 2026-27, down from 844 million in 2025-26
Sources
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