World · East Asia & Pacific · 17 hrs ago
North Korea denuclearisation is increasingly unlikely, analyst says
Jenny Town, director of the US-based North Korea analysis programme 38 North, says giving up North Korea’s nuclear weapons is increasingly unlikely.
North Korea conducted its first nuclear test on October 9, 2006, and has since carried out six tests, according to Kyodo.
Town says a major turning point came in 2017, when North Korea first test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the US.
That development raised concerns in South Korea about whether the United States would still protect its allies if North Korea could threaten the US mainland.
Talks between the United States and North Korea in 2018 and 2019 did not resolve disagreements over denuclearisation and sanctions relief.
Town says missed chances to keep negotiating helped North Korea conclude that provocative actions were more likely to bring the United States to the table.
She argues that diplomacy should now focus on limiting weapons and preventing crises, rather than making denuclearisation its main goal.
Jenny Town says North Korea’s denuclearization has become increasingly improbable.
The 38 North director says the United States and its allies should focus on arms limitations and crisis communication.
She identifies North Korea’s first intercontinental ballistic missile test in 2017 as a pivotal moment in its weapons development.
Town says North Korea’s long-range capabilities have increased South Korean fears that the United States could be deterred from protecting its allies.
She also says missed opportunities in past negotiations helped make denuclearization harder to achieve.
- Who
- Jenny Town, director of the 38 North analysis website, made the assessment.
- What
- She said North Korea’s denuclearization is increasingly improbable and urged a focus on arms limitations and crisis communication.
- When
- Town’s comments were published on October 11, 2026.
- Where
- The comments were given in a written interview. The interview location is not stated.
- Why
- Town cited North Korea’s weapons development, including its 2017 ICBM test, and missed opportunities for negotiations.
United States
North Korea
Negotiating aims
United States
Washington sought the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea
Pyongyang called for sanctions relief.
Security commitments
United States
At the 2018 Singapore summit, the United States agreed to provide security guarantees to North Korea in exchange for complete denuclearization.
North Korea
North Korea sought security guarantees from the United States.
a pivotal moment
the nature of the threat and the way U.S. allies viewed the credibility of U.S. extended deterrence
one of the biggest missed opportunities
But during many of those moments, the U.S. simply wasn't interested
North Korea carried out its first nuclear test.
North Korea conducted its first test-firing of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un met at the first U.S.-North Korea summit in Singapore and agreed on security guarantees and complete denuclearization.
Trump and Kim met in Vietnam but did not bridge the gap between U.S. denuclearization demands and North Korea’s calls for sanctions relief.
Working-level denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea took place in Stockholm and broke down.
- Interviewee
- Jenny Town
- Analysis website
- 38 North
- First nuclear test
- October 9, 2006
- Pivotal weapons-development moment
- North Korea’s first ICBM test-firing in 2017
- Missed negotiating opportunity
- Working-level talks in Stockholm, October 2019
Sources
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