Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
IMF sees 3.1% global growth in 2026 as AI investment offsets war shock
The International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026, slightly above its July forecast.
It says strong investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset the effects of the prolonged Middle East war, which has kept oil prices above US$100 a barrel.
The IMF says countries supplying AI hardware, including South Korea, Malaysia, Mexico and Thailand, are among those benefiting.
But growth is increasingly concentrated: 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, compared with 54 countries in April.
The IMF has lowered its forecasts for 47% of economies since April, including Gulf countries hit directly by the war and energy importers outside AI supply chains.
It warns that a longer conflict, rising inflation, debt concerns or weaker returns from AI investment could further slow growth.
The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.4% in 2027 and is presenting its outlook at its annual meetings in Bangkok.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts global growth of 3.1% in 2026, up slightly from its July projection of 3.0%.
The IMF says strong investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset the economic shock from the war in the Middle East.
It expects global growth to reach 3.4% in 2027.
The IMF warns that risks to growth are tilted to the downside as the conflict persists and debt pressures grow.
The benefits of AI investment are concentrated in a limited number of countries, while many others face weaker forecasts.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund issued the forecast. Its new chief economist, Silvana Tenreyro, discussed the outlook.
- What
- The IMF raised its forecast for global growth in 2026 to 3.1%, citing strong AI investment that offsets some effects of the Middle East war.
- When
- The forecast was released on October 13, 2026.
- Where
- The forecast was released as IMF and World Bank annual meetings took place in Bangkok.
- Why
- Continued investment in AI infrastructure is supporting growth, while the war’s energy shock and other risks weigh on the outlook.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The IMF’s earlier outlook forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2026.
The IMF forecast global growth of 3.0% in 2026.
The IMF released its new forecast of 3.1% global growth for 2026.
The IMF forecasts global growth of 3.4%.
- Global growth forecast, 2026
- 3.1%
- Global growth forecast, 2027
- 3.4%
- Global growth forecast, July projection for 2026
- 3.0%
- Countries accounting for 95% of global growth
- 32
- Saudi Arabia forecast, 2026
- 3.3% GDP contraction
- Iran forecast, 2026
- 7.6% GDP contraction
What people are saying
The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks to growth tilted to the downside
Two forces are acting on the economy: on one side, rising energy prices create negative supply shocks, strengthening inflation; on the other, investments, mainly in artificial intelligence (AI), generate a demand shock
global growth would have fallen to 2.5 per cent in 2026 without these measures
it is what allows the global economy to maintain growth of 3%
Sources
Related news
IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% as AI investment supports growth
Robert Hall and Michael Woodford win 2026 economics prize
IMF and World Bank leaders urge support for young workers facing AI disruption
Oil prices dip as expected Russian diesel supplies offset Gulf risks
IMF says AI investment supports growth as war and debt threaten outlook
More than 70 economists form Spanish network to promote shared prosperity
Public and private financing needs are making money more expensive
Top economies face largest budget deficits since Covid, IMF warns
Copper and Aluminum Fall as AI Spending Concerns Weigh on Demand Outlook
Brent crude rebounds to $106.65 as shipping and security risks weigh
Asian chip and AI stocks fall sharply ahead of US earnings
