Business · Economy · 38 mins ago
IMF raises 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% as AI investment supports growth
The International Monetary Fund now expects the global economy to grow by 3.1% in 2026, 0.1 percentage points more than it forecast in July.
It says investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset the economic effects of the war in the Middle East and higher energy prices.
The benefits are uneven: advanced Asian economies, including semiconductor producer Taiwan, are among those gaining from the AI boom.
Latin America’s growth forecast was cut to 2.3%, because the region is expected to lose more from rising oil prices than it gains from AI investment.
Oil exporters such as Venezuela and Guyana are expected to benefit, while Mexico’s forecast is 1.5% and Brazil’s is 2.2%.
The IMF expects the Middle East and North Africa to fall into recession this year because of the war, and forecasts a 3.3% contraction for Saudi Arabia.
The revised forecasts show how conflict and energy costs are affecting regions differently, while AI investment is supporting growth in some economies.
The International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July.
The IMF said investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset the economic damage from higher oil and gas prices linked to the war in the Middle East.
It expects advanced economies to grow 2.1% this year, while emerging and developing economies are forecast to grow 3.7%.
The benefits of AI investment are uneven, with the United States and China accounting for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of chips and other AI-related equipment.
The IMF also expects global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026, partly as oil prices increase.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund.
- What
- It raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2026 to 3.1%.
- When
- Tuesday, October 13, 2026.
- Where
- The forecast was announced as world economic and financial leaders gathered in Bangkok.
- Why
- The IMF said investment in artificial intelligence is helping offset the effects of higher oil and gas prices linked to the war in the Middle East.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The world economy expanded at an annual pace of 3.5%, according to the IMF.
The IMF had forecast global growth of 3.0% for 2026.
Kristalina Georgieva said AI's acceleration was allowing the global economy to maintain growth of 3%.
The IMF released an updated forecast of 3.1% global growth for 2026.
- 2026 global growth forecast
- 3.1%
- Previous forecast
- 3.0% in July
- 2025 global growth
- 3.5%
- 2026 US growth forecast
- 2.3%
- 2026 emerging and developing economy growth forecast
- 3.7%
What people are saying
The outlook is highly uneven.
Two forces act on the economy: on one side, rising energy prices, which cause negative supply shocks and reinforce inflation; on the other, investments, mainly in artificial intelligence (AI), which generate a demand shock.
a slow moving tsunami, but tsunami nonetheless.
Sources
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