Sports · American Football · 5 hrs ago
NFL playoff projections shift after the season’s first five weeks
The NFL season is only five weeks old, but projections are already estimating which teams could reach the playoffs.
The forecasts cover teams in both conferences, with 14 places available in the postseason.
ESPN’s Football Power Index rates New England’s chances as improving after strong play from quarterback Drake Maye, while Green Bay’s odds have also risen after a win over Chicago.
The Dallas Cowboys’ chances fell after an unexpected loss, and the Los Angeles Chargers have started 0-5, according to the coverage.
Different forecasts use different methods: ESPN projects results with its Football Power Index, while another set of odds reflects betting markets.
The playoff rounds are scheduled to begin Jan.
16, 2027, with Super Bowl LXI set for Feb.
14 in Los Angeles.
NFL playoff projections shifted after the first five weeks of the 2026 season, with the New England Patriots and Green Bay Packers trending up and the Dallas Cowboys trending down in ESPN’s analysis.
ESPN used its Football Power Index to project teams’ postseason chances, while Fox Sports reported betting odds from bet365 as of Oct. 12.
The Packers’ playoff chance rose from 13.3% after a Week 3 loss to more than 35% after a win over the Bears.
The Cowboys’ playoff odds fell by almost 15% after an unexpected loss to the Buccaneers.
The San Francisco 49ers began the season 5-0, and their odds to make the playoffs shortened from -750 to -2500, according to Fox Sports.
- Who
- NFL teams, including the Patriots, Packers, Cowboys and 49ers.
- What
- Playoff projections and betting odds changed after the season’s first five weeks.
- When
- The articles were published Oct. 12 and 13, 2026, after Week 5.
- Where
- The NFL, across the AFC and NFC.
- Why
- Teams’ results affected projections; ESPN used its Football Power Index, while Fox Sports reported bet365 odds.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Green Bay had a 13.3% chance to make the playoffs after losing to Atlanta.
Green Bay’s playoff chance was above 35% after a win over Chicago.
Dallas lost to Tampa Bay, and its playoff odds fell by almost 15%.
Fox Sports reported playoff betting odds from bet365.
ESPN published updated playoff projections using its Football Power Index.
The NFL wild-card round is scheduled.
- Season
- 2026 NFL season
- Packers’ playoff chance
- 13.3% after Week 3; above 35% after a win over the Bears
- Cowboys’ playoff odds
- Fell by almost 15% after losing to the Buccaneers
- 49ers’ record
- 5-0
- 49ers’ playoff odds
- Shortened from -750 to -2500
- Super Bowl LXI
- Feb. 14, 2027, in Los Angeles
What people are saying
Maye is the first player this season to post a 90-plus Total QBR in back-to-back games
Sources
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