Health · Public Health & Disease · 23 hrs ago
Flu activity is rising earlier than usual in England
Flu activity in England is increasing earlier than it has in the past four winters, though levels remain low.
Health data show rising positive tests and GP visits, with emergency visits for flu-like illness above the usual seasonal level.
Cases among people aged 18 to 24 appear to be driving the increase, and two flu A subtypes are circulating.
The vaccine covers both subtypes and influenza B, but it takes a few weeks to provide full protection.
Experts say an early start does not necessarily mean a more severe season, although it may mean a longer period of spread.
Vaccination is available free through the NHS for children and people in higher-risk groups; others may be able to get it through work or pay for it privately.
Experts urge eligible people to get vaccinated as soon as possible, before flu transmission reaches its peak.
Flu activity is rising earlier than usual in England, according to experts and UKHSA data.
UKHSA says flu levels remain low, but positive tests, GP consultations and emergency-department attendances point to an increase.
Flu activity throughout September was higher than in the same period during each of the previous four winters.
Experts say vaccination is the best way to reduce the impact of flu and urge people at risk to get vaccinated soon.
An early rise may be linked to a more intense season, but experts say timing alone does not determine severity.
- Who
- UKHSA and flu experts reported the rise. People at higher risk are urged to get vaccinated.
- What
- Flu activity is rising earlier than usual in England, although levels remain low.
- When
- Trends have been rising since August; activity throughout September was higher than in the same period during each of the previous four winters.
- Where
- England.
- Why
- The cause is uncertain. Possible factors include weather, the virus strain, population immunity and people’s behaviour.
Andrew Pollard and Antonia Ho
Andrew Pollard
Significance of an early rise
Andrew Pollard and Antonia Ho
An early flu season does not necessarily mean a worse season.
Andrew Pollard
Earlier onset may indicate a more intense season, with longer community transmission and higher cumulative case numbers, though timing alone does not determine severity.
There is one simple action for all those who are at risk because of age or their underlying health conditions, which is to get vaccinated as soon as possible and before we reach the peak of transmission.
An early rise in influenza cases may indicate a more intense influenza season overall, because earlier onset is associated with a longer period of community transmission and higher cumulative case numbers
Last year is a good example where [we] also had an early start to the flu season, and then because of that, probably people slightly changed their behaviours and went and got vaccinated, and then it comes down again.
UKHSA data indicate that flu trends have been rising.
Flu activity was higher than in the same period during each of the previous four winters.
England’s flu vaccination programme is estimated to have prevented about 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths.
- Current flu levels
- Low, according to UKHSA
- Trend
- Rising since August
- September activity
- Higher than the same period in each of the previous four winters
- Age group
- UKHSA data suggest cases among people aged 18 to 24 are driving the increase
- Circulating strains
- Flu A subtypes H1N1 and H3N2
- Last winter’s vaccination impact
- Estimated 100,000 hospital admissions and 7,000 deaths prevented
Sources
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