Business · Economy · 2 hrs ago
Nobel economist says sustained 8% growth is rare and difficult
Economist James A. Robinson said annual growth of 8% is rare and difficult to sustain at a policy forum in Jakarta.
He described several paths to that pace, including economies that undergo long-term structural transformation, such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China and Singapore.
Some countries also grow quickly by turning natural resources into higher-value products, but commodity prices can change and resource booms may not last.
Robinson said resource income needs investment in other sectors if growth is to continue after extraction slows or prices fall.
He cited Oman, Saudi Arabia and Botswana as countries that used resource income to diversify, while warning that other resource-rich economies let the opportunity pass.
He said growth also depends on production, technology and inclusive institutions that create opportunities and incentives for people and businesses.
The discussion did not set out a specific next step for Indonesia.
Nobel economics laureate James A. Robinson said sustaining annual economic growth of 8% is difficult and uncommon.
He made the remarks at the Prasasti Indonesia Policy Forum 2026 in Jakarta on October 13.
Robinson described three routes to 8% growth: long-term structural transformation, resource-led growth, and using resource income to diversify the economy.
He said resource-led growth may fade when extraction declines or commodity prices change unless the proceeds are invested in other sectors.
Robinson said inclusive economic institutions provide incentives and opportunities that support growth.
- Who
- James A. Robinson, the 2024 Nobel economics laureate.
- What
- He said sustained annual economic growth of 8% is rare and difficult.
- When
- October 13, 2026.
- Where
- The Prasasti Indonesia Policy Forum 2026 in Jakarta.
- Why
- Robinson said growth depends on factors including production, technology and institutions, and that resource-led growth can fade without investment in other sectors.
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- Growth rate discussed
- 8% per year
- Speaker
- James A. Robinson
- Forum
- Prasasti Indonesia Policy Forum 2026
- Location
- Jakarta
- Date
- October 13, 2026
2 sources
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What people are saying
Rapid economic growth, at a rate of 8% per year, is actually an unusual phenomenon, although at first glance it seems like something simple
In the book Why Nations Fail, we argue that economic growth is created by inclusive economic institutions that provide broad incentives and opportunities for many people