Business · Markets · 1 day ago
Tax-exempt infrastructure debentures could reach R$935 billion by 2036
Brazil may be entering a new period of infrastructure investment that relies more on private financing, according to Riza Asset.
The asset manager says reduced BNDES financing and more mature rules for concessions are increasing the importance of capital markets.
Tax-incentivized debentures already provided 37.1% of financing for major sectors in 2024, based on figures cited by Riza from the National Confederation of Industry.
Riza estimates the outstanding stock of these bonds at R$571 billion this year and projects it could reach R$935 billion by 2036.
Transport and logistics, especially roads, could help broaden investment beyond the electricity sector.
The mix of buyers may also shift: investment funds could rise from 40% to 55% of demand for new offerings, while individual investors could fall from 30% to 15%; banks are projected to remain at 30%.
To match that growth, infrastructure funds’ assets may need to rise from R$346.5 billion to R$771 billion by 2036.
Brazil’s stock of tax-exempt infrastructure debentures could rise from R$571 billion to R$935 billion by 2036, according to a Riza Asset study.
The study says infrastructure investment is expected to rely mostly on private financing as the BNDES plays a smaller role.
Transport and logistics, especially roads, could help reduce the debenture market’s current concentration in electricity.
Investment funds could increase their share of demand for new offerings from 40% to 55%.
Riza says infrastructure funds’ assets would need to grow from R$346.5 billion to R$771 billion by 2036.
- Who
- Riza Asset made the forecast in a study shared with clients.
- What
- The stock of tax-exempt infrastructure debentures could reach R$935 billion by 2036.
- When
- The forecast is for 2036; the study was published on October 11, 2026.
- Where
- Brazil.
- Why
- Riza says infrastructure investment is expected to rely more on private financing as the BNDES’s role declines.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Incentivized debentures represented 37.1% of financing in the main sectors, according to data cited by Riza from the CNI.
The stock of these securities stood at R$571 billion, according to the study.
The stock could reach R$935 billion, and infrastructure funds’ assets would need to reach R$771 billion.
- Current debenture stock
- R$571 billion
- Projected debenture stock
- R$935 billion by 2036
- Debentures’ financing share
- 37.1% in 2024
- Investment funds’ share of new-offer demand
- 40% currently; projected to rise to 55%
- Infrastructure funds’ assets
- R$346.5 billion currently; R$771 billion needed by 2036
What people are saying
As the market gains scale and requires greater capacity for analysis, selection and diversification, we believe a growing share of this demand will shift from direct purchases to specialized vehicles.
Sources
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