Business · Energy & Commodities · 1 hr ago
Study estimates Pemex could have earned more by exporting crude than refining it
Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, chose to send crude oil to its refineries rather than export it.
A Mexico Evalúa analysis estimates that this choice meant about $41 billion in potential earnings were not realized from 2022 to 2025.
The analysis found that exporting crude was more profitable than refining it in each of those four years.
In 2025, it estimated that exporting a barrel earned $47.70, compared with $26.20 from refining it.
Refining costs, unused refinery capacity and the production of lower-value fuel oil help explain the difference.
The estimated amount is an opportunity cost, not an accounting loss or money Pemex actually paid out.
Mexico Evalúa estimates the annual opportunity cost could be 145 billion pesos in 2026 and 137 billion pesos in 2027, and says Pemex could earn more by closing unprofitable refining capacity and exporting the crude instead.
A México Evalúa analysis estimates that Pemex could have earned about $41 billion more between 2022 and 2025 by exporting crude instead of refining it.
The estimate is a potential opportunity cost, not an accounting loss or money Pemex paid out.
The analysis found that exporting was more profitable than refining in every year studied.
In 2025, exporting generated an estimated $47.70 per barrel, compared with $26.20 from refining.
The analysis projects annual opportunity costs of 145 billion pesos in 2026 and 137 billion pesos in 2027.
- Who
- Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex); the estimates were made by México Evalúa.
- What
- A study estimated that Pemex could have earned about $41 billion more from 2022 to 2025 by exporting crude rather than refining it.
- When
- The analysis covers 2022 to 2025 and includes projections for 2026 and 2027. El Financiero published its article on October 12, 2026.
- Where
- Mexico; the analysis compares refining at Pemex refineries with crude exports to international markets.
- Why
- Refining was less profitable, with operating costs, idle capacity and high production of lower-value fuel oil contributing to the difference.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
México Evalúa estimated that the opportunity cost of refining rather than exporting was 283 billion pesos.
The estimated opportunity cost fell to 185 billion pesos.
The estimated opportunity cost was 160 billion pesos.
The estimated opportunity cost was 153 billion pesos, or a difference of $21.50 for each barrel processed.
México Evalúa projected an annual opportunity cost of 145 billion pesos.
México Evalúa projected an annual opportunity cost of 137 billion pesos.
- Estimated opportunity cost, 2022–2025
- About $41 billion, or about 781 billion pesos
- Export revenue per barrel, 2025
- $47.70
- Refining revenue per barrel, 2025
- $26.20
- National refining system capacity use, 2025
- 58.6%
- Fuel oil share of refined products
- 20.4%
What people are saying
Between 2022 and 2025, the research team did not identify a single year in which refining yielded more for Pemex than exporting.
Sources
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