Business · Economy · 4 hrs ago
Mexico cuts its 2026 growth forecast to 1.5%
Mexico’s finance ministry has lowered its forecast for economic growth in 2026 from 2.3% to 1.5%.
The estimate comes as the year enters its final quarter.
Private-sector analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico expect growth of 1.4% this year.
For 2027, the finance ministry forecasts 2% growth, while private analysts expect 1.77%.
The forecasts also differ on inflation: the ministry expects 3.5% this year and 3% in 2027, compared with private estimates of 3.85% for both years.
These projections give a snapshot of expectations for Mexico’s economy, prices and currency; the ministry also expects the peso to end 2026 at 17.8 per US dollar.
The figures are forecasts, and the update gives no further steps or policy changes.
Mexico’s Finance Ministry cut its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.5%, from 2.3% in March.
The revised government forecast gives a growth range of 1% to 2%.
Private-sector analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico forecast 1.4% growth for 2026 in September.
For 2027, the Finance Ministry projected growth of 2%, while private-sector analysts forecast 1.77%.
The estimates were reported in an update covering forecasts for the end of 2026 and for 2027.
- Who
- Mexico’s Finance Ministry and private-sector analysts surveyed by the Bank of Mexico.
- What
- The Finance Ministry cut its 2026 growth forecast to 1.5% from 2.3%.
- When
- The estimates were updated at the start of the last quarter of 2026; the report was published on October 12, 2026.
- Where
- Mexico.
- Why
- Not stated.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The Finance Ministry forecast that Mexico’s GDP would grow 2.3% in 2026.
The private-sector average forecast for 2026 growth was 1.07%.
The private-sector average forecast for 2026 growth was 1.4%.
The Finance Ministry’s 2026 growth estimate was updated to 1.5%.
- Finance Ministry 2026 growth forecast
- 1.5%, down from 2.3% in March
- Government forecast range
- 1% to 2%
- Private-sector 2026 growth forecast
- 1.4% in September
- Finance Ministry 2027 growth forecast
- 2%
- Private-sector 2027 growth forecast
- 1.77%
Sources
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