Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
Nobel economist warns strong growth does not guarantee lasting stability
Economist James A. Robinson warned that decades of strong growth do not mean a country has solved its deeper problems.
He made the point at a discussion in Jakarta, using China and the former Soviet Union as examples.
Robinson said China has achieved major economic success, but he sees power becoming more concentrated around its leader.
He also pointed to entrepreneur Jack Ma, who became less visible after making limited criticism of government rules.
Robinson said this raises questions about political power, freedom to speak and the space businesses have to operate.
He argued that economic growth needs institutions that balance power and give people and businesses room to act.
The Soviet Union once seemed likely to catch up with the United States, but it broke apart and no longer exists.
Robinson said China’s success does not guarantee its current system will last, though he did not specify what changes may come or when.
Nobel economist James A. Robinson warned that strong economic growth does not guarantee that a country has solved its development problems or can sustain its system.
He cited China as a country with major economic success but growing political centralisation and limits on space for business and criticism.
Robinson also pointed to the Soviet Union, whose expected economic catch-up with the United States did not prevent its eventual dissolution.
He said lasting development requires institutions that balance power and give society and business room to operate.
- Who
- James A. Robinson, the 2024 Nobel laureate in economics.
- What
- He warned that strong growth does not ensure lasting stability or resolve a country’s development problems.
- When
- He spoke at a discussion on 12 October 2026. The article was published on 13 October 2026.
- Where
- At a discussion held by Indonesia’s National Economic Council and the Prasasti Center for Policy Studies. The article identifies the event but does not state its location.
- Why
- He said growth can obscure unresolved development problems, and argued that lasting development needs institutions that balance power and protect space for society and business.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
Robinson said many people thought the Soviet Union would last forever.
The Soviet Union was still described as on course to catch up with the United States by 2000.
The estimate for when the Soviet Union would catch up with the United States was pushed back to 2010.
Robinson spoke about the risks of assuming that strong economic growth guarantees lasting development.
- Speaker
- James A. Robinson
- Award
- 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics
- Discussion date
- 12 October 2026
- Organisers
- Indonesia’s National Economic Council and the Prasasti Center for Policy Studies
- Examples cited
- China and the Soviet Union
What people are saying
We acknowledge that China has achieved great economic success. However, strong economic growth over several decades can mislead us into thinking that a country has succeeded in resolving all its development problems.
At some point, something will have to change. A system like this will eventually face problems that cannot continue to be ignored.
In 1961, many people thought that the Soviet Union would last forever.
Sources
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