HSBC expects another Fed rate hike as pressure on the peso grows

• 

  HSBC expects the US Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate again, while it does not expect Mexico’s central bank to change rates in 2026.

• 

  The bank said a more restrictive Fed policy than Banco de México’s could keep pressure on the Mexican peso and cause exchange-rate volatility.

• 

  The Fed raised its rate by 25 basis points in September to a range of 3.75% to 4%, while Banco de México kept its rate at 6.50%.

• 

  The peso depreciated 6.3% against the dollar in September and traded between 16.8573 and 18.1530 per dollar.

• 

  HSBC also cited unresolved geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, particularly events in Iran, as a factor affecting the exchange rate.

Who

HSBC expects another US Federal Reserve rate increase; Banco de México is also discussed.

What

HSBC expects a further Fed rate hike and says differences in monetary policy could add pressure and volatility for the Mexican peso.

When

The report was published on October 13, 2026. The Fed’s previous rate increase was in September.

Where

Mexico and the United States; the currency discussed is the Mexican peso against the US dollar.

Why

HSBC says a more restrictive Fed policy than Banco de México’s could widen policy differences and pressure the peso. It also cites unresolved geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.