Business · Economy · 1 hr ago
IMF cuts China’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.5%
The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.5%, down from 4.6% in July.
The forecast is at the lower end of Beijing’s growth target for the year.
Weak consumer spending and declining investment have weighed on activity, while the property sector remains strained.
Strong exports have partly offset those problems but have not been enough to fully make up for them.
The IMF also expects higher global oil prices, ongoing uncertainty and longer-term economic pressures to weigh on growth.
It says government policy support should help prevent a sharper slowdown.
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.5 per cent.
The revised projection is down from 4.6 per cent in July and sits at the lower end of Beijing’s annual growth target.
The IMF said robust exports only partly offset weak domestic consumption and investment amid continued property-sector strains.
It said higher global oil prices, uncertainty and structural headwinds were expected to weigh on economic activity.
The IMF said policy support from Beijing was expected to prevent a sharper slowdown.
- Who
- The International Monetary Fund.
- What
- It cut its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5 per cent.
- When
- The forecast was released on Tuesday, according to the article published on October 13, 2026.
- Where
- China.
- Why
- Weak domestic consumption and investment, property-sector strains, higher global oil prices, uncertainty and structural headwinds weighed on the outlook.
This story does not have two clearly opposing sides.
The IMF’s previous forecast projected China’s 2026 growth at 4.6 per cent.
The IMF released its latest World Economic Outlook, revising its 2026 growth forecast for China to 4.5 per cent.
- 2026 growth forecast
- 4.5 per cent
- Previous forecast
- 4.6 per cent in July
- Annual growth target
- The revised forecast is at the lower end of Beijing’s target
- Offset to weakness
- Robust export performance only partly offset weak domestic demand
What people are saying
Sluggishness in domestic consumption and weakening investment amid continued property sector strains were only partly offset by robust export performance.
Higher global oil prices, together with protracted uncertainty and structural headwinds, are expected to weigh on activity.
sharper slowdown
Sources
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