Business · Trade · 2 days ago
Low prices and winter demand may lift coal exports late this year
Global exports of thermal coal are on track to fall for a second year, but shipments may rise sharply in the final weeks of 2026.
The main reason is that Australian coal costs about 80% less than liquefied natural gas delivered to Asia.
Coal is also typically in greater demand in Asia during the fourth quarter, as utilities build stocks for winter heating.
China, Japan and South Korea imported about 122 million tonnes of coal from July to September, while their average imports in the final quarter of 2024 and 2025 were about 143 million tonnes.
Indonesia and Australia, two major coal exporters, usually ship more in the final quarter than in other quarters.
Indonesia shipped just under 107 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026, while Australia shipped 52 million tonnes.
If East Asian utilities increase orders to match past patterns, exports could rise late in the year, keeping coal important to the region’s energy supply despite climate concerns.
Global thermal coal exports are on course to decline for a second straight year, but low prices compared with liquefied natural gas may lift shipments late in the year.
Australian benchmark thermal coal is trading about 80% below the price of LNG delivered to Asia.
The fourth quarter is typically a peak period for Asian coal demand as utilities rebuild stocks ahead of winter.
China, Japan and South Korea imported about 122 million tonnes of coal in the third quarter.
Indonesia and Australia usually export more coal in the fourth quarter than in other quarters.
- Who
- Coal exporters, including Indonesia and Australia, and Asian utilities.
- What
- Coal exports may rise sharply late in the year as coal prices undercut LNG and seasonal demand increases.
- When
- In the final weeks of 2026, particularly the fourth quarter.
- Where
- Asian energy markets, including China, Japan and South Korea.
- Why
- Coal is much cheaper than LNG, while utilities typically replenish stocks ahead of the winter heating season.
Coal’s economic case
Climate observers Asian utilities
Fuel choice
Coal’s economic case
A late-year rebound in coal flows could frustrate those hoping for a lasting decline in coal use.
Climate observers Asian utilities
Utilities may favor coal over LNG because it is cheaper for power generation.
Energy priorities
Coal’s economic case
Climate concerns argue against a sustained reliance on coal.
Climate observers Asian utilities
In the near term, economic considerations may outweigh climate concerns.
No direct quotes in the coverage so far.
China, Japan and South Korea imported about 122 million tonnes of coal.
Asian utilities typically rebuild fuel stocks ahead of peak winter heating demand.
- Australian thermal coal
- About $143 per metric tonne at Newcastle
- Coal price advantage
- About 80% below Asian-delivered LNG prices
- Asian LNG price
- About $25 per million British thermal units
- China, Japan and South Korea
- About 122 million tonnes of coal imported in July–September
- Indonesia exports
- Just under 107 million tonnes in the third quarter of 2026
Sources
Related news
Saudi Arabia signs energy cooperation agreements with Kuwait, Qatar and Egypt
Riyadh Economic Forum to discuss five studies on Saudi priorities
UAE education company negotiates controlling stake in Saudi school operator
Costs put pressure on Al-Mutaqaddimah’s profits
Extra's profits decline
Provisions absorb most of Tasheel’s profits
Saudi Energy Minister Calls Riyadh a Center of Energy Security
Saudi industrial production fell 23.5% in August
Saudi Arabia plans more pipelines to protect energy exports
Al Eqtisadiah Honors Teams Behind Its First Annual Forum
Advanced Petrochemical’s third-quarter profit falls 94% to 4 million riyals
