3 days ago
Pakistan Tweaks India Strategy, Betting on Radicalisation and Proxy War
Indian intelligence officials say Pakistan may be changing how it acts against India.
Instead of launching a very large attack right now, it may support smaller attacks and recruit people secretly.
The officials also say Pakistan is spreading propaganda and encouraging radicalisation in India.
They believe the Inter-Services Intelligence is building groups that could act as proxies in Jammu and Kashmir.
These groups would fight Indian forces instead of Pakistan’s army if a larger conflict began.
This approach could make it harder to prove Pakistan’s direct involvement.
Officials say Pakistan wants to appear peaceful internationally and avoid provoking a strong military response.
They also warn that the long-term activities could still create serious security risks.
Indian intelligence assessments say Pakistan is avoiding major attacks for now to prevent military retaliation.
The Inter-Services Intelligence is allegedly prioritising recruitment, propaganda, radicalisation and smaller attacks across India.
The agency is reportedly building proxy networks in Jammu and Kashmir for a possible future escalation.
Pakistan is also accused of supporting smuggling, counterfeiting and militant training involving Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
Officials say a major attack could damage Pakistan’s international image and trigger a response like Operation Sindoor.
- Who
- Pakistan, its Inter-Services Intelligence agency, and Indian security agencies are central to the report.
- What
- Indian intelligence assessments allege that Pakistan is prioritising radicalisation, recruitment and proxy networks over an immediate large-scale attack.
- Where
- The alleged activities are focused across India, including Jammu and Kashmir.
- When
- The reported strategy is described as current; officials say radicalisation efforts have intensified over the past eight months and refer to a possible escalation within three years.
- Why
- Officials say Pakistan wants to avoid direct retaliation, preserve its international image and prepare for a possible future conflict through proxy forces.
Reported Pakistani Strategic Calculation
Indian Security Assessment
Avoiding immediate escalation
Reported Pakistani Strategic Calculation
According to the assessments, Pakistan is seeking to avoid a major attack that could trigger direct Indian military retaliation and international pressure.
Indian Security Assessment
Indian officials warn that the absence of a major attack should not be mistaken for reduced danger because smaller attacks and covert preparations may continue.
Use of proxy forces
Reported Pakistani Strategic Calculation
The reported strategy is to rely on trained militant and proxy forces rather than Pakistan’s army in a future conflict, preserving deniability and limiting risks to Islamabad.
Indian Security Assessment
Indian officials say the development of proxy networks in Jammu and Kashmir is a long-term security threat designed to wage conflict indirectly.
International image versus domestic operations
Reported Pakistani Strategic Calculation
Pakistan is described as trying to project itself as a regional peacemaker while maintaining international relationships and avoiding actions that could damage that image.
Indian Security Assessment
Indian assessments allege that Pakistan is simultaneously supporting radicalisation, recruitment, propaganda, smuggling and counterfeiting despite its diplomatic positioning.
Key facts
- Primary assessment
- Pakistan is reportedly avoiding a major attack on India for now.
- Reported focus
- Recruitment, propaganda, radicalisation, smaller attacks and home-grown terror modules.
- Proxy activity
- The Inter-Services Intelligence is allegedly building a proxy network in Jammu and Kashmir.
- Militant groups named
- Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed.
- Time frame cited
- Radicalisation preparations have reportedly continued for eight months; officials mention possible escalation within three years.
- International calculation
- Officials say a major attack could prompt retaliation and undermine Pakistan’s peacemaker image.
- Other alleged activities
- Smuggling and counterfeiting operations are expected to continue, according to officials.
Quotes
An unnamed Pakistani-affairs intelligence official
An official discussing Pakistan’s strategic objectives
“The current priority of the dispensation in Pakistan is to focus on international relations rather than get drawn into trouble by carrying out an attack on Indian soil.”
thehansindia.com
“This is not just about Pakistan wanting to retain the deniability factor, but also about projecting itself as an international player and a global peacemaker.”
thehansindia.com
Sources
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