1 week ago
India Growth May Beat Forecast as Rate Hike Bets Rise
India’s economy may grow faster than the central bank previously expected.
Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said growth close to 7% could be possible this financial year.
She also said India should aim for at least 7.5% growth over the long term.
Several measures, such as exports, bank lending and vehicle sales, have improved.
This strength may cause prices to rise more quickly.
Because of that risk, the central bank may consider raising borrowing costs.
Financial markets are now expecting several possible rate increases.
However, an HSBC survey gave a mixed picture of the economy.
India’s next quarterly growth figures will provide more information.
Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said India’s growth could approach 7% this financial year.
Gupta said a 7.5% growth pace is achievable over the long term.
Stronger indicators include corporate earnings, exports, bank credit and vehicle sales.
Markets now increasingly expect the Reserve Bank of India to raise interest rates.
Economists cited resilience despite a weak monsoon and elevated energy costs, although an HSBC survey was mixed.
- Who
- Reserve Bank of India Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta, Indian economists and financial-market traders.
- What
- India’s economy may outperform forecasts, while expectations of future interest-rate increases have risen.
- Where
- India.
- When
- Gupta made the comments on Thursday; April–June GDP data are due later this month, and the financial year ends in March.
- Why
- Stronger economic indicators may support faster growth but could also increase inflationary pressure, prompting policymakers to consider higher borrowing costs.
Optimistic Growth View
Cautious Policy View
Economic momentum
Optimistic Growth View
Poonam Gupta and several economists point to stronger-than-expected indicators, including corporate earnings, exports, bank credit, vehicle sales and industrial production.
Cautious Policy View
An HSBC Holdings survey presented a mixed picture, indicating that not all indicators were uniformly positive.
Interest-rate outlook
Optimistic Growth View
Stronger growth suggests India can remain resilient and continue expanding rapidly despite economic shocks.
Cautious Policy View
If faster growth increases inflation, policymakers may need to raise borrowing costs; markets are increasingly pricing several rate hikes.
Long-term ambition
Optimistic Growth View
Gupta said a 7.5% growth pace is achievable over the long term, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi has set a goal of making India a developed nation by 2047.
Cautious Policy View
Economists cited in the report said achieving that ambition may require growth above 8% for at least two decades, making sustained performance demanding.
Key facts
- Potential growth pace
- Close to 7% this financial year, according to Poonam Gupta’s assessment.
- Long-term growth view
- Gupta said a 7.5% pace is achievable and that India should aspire to do better.
- GDP release
- April–June quarter GDP data are due later this month.
- Economists’ GDP forecasts
- Predictions generally range from 6.9% to 8%.
- Market expectations
- The overnight index swaps curve implies three to four rate increases, according to ICICI Securities Primary Dealership economist Abhishek Upadhyay.
- Expected first move
- Markets priced a 45%–50% chance of an October increase, while a December hike was fully priced in.
- Economic pressures
- India is facing a deficient monsoon and elevated energy costs.
Quotes
Vivek Kumar
Economist with QuantEco Research
“We can definitely say the economy is far more resilient and better than what we were expecting three months back”
livemint.com
Sources
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