2 weeks ago

EM Inflation-Linked Debt Draws Selective Bets After Big Run

EM Inflation-Linked Debt Draws Selective Bets After Big Run
Traders Get Pickier After Big Run in $886 Billion EM Debt Market · livemint.com

Some countries' governments borrow money by selling bonds.

Usually, a bond pays a fixed amount of interest.

But there are special bonds called inflation-linked bonds, where the payments go up when prices in the country go up.

This year, these special bonds in developing countries have made investors a lot of money, about 11.3%.

That is much better than other types of bonds.

Investors are now being careful and choosing only the best ones.

They like the ones in Chile, Poland, and Argentina.

But they are less excited about the ones in Brazil and Mexico now.

One reason is that prices are rising faster than expected in many countries.

Also, the Turkish central bank said it did not meet its price goal and raised its forecast.

Investors are watching the weather too, because something called El Niño could make food prices go up.

Overall, these special bonds are still popular, but investors are being pickier about which ones to buy.

Key facts

Asset class size
$886 billion
Index return (2026 YTD)
11.3%
Broader local debt index return
1.5%
Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index return
-0.1%
Turkey year-end inflation projection
28% (revised up from 26%)
EM inflation-linked debt (index-eligible)
Above $800 billion
Share from Brazil and Mexico
More than half of index-eligible debt

Quotes

Benjamin Souza

Head of strategy for Latin America at BlackRock

“"Inflation‑linked bonds are increasingly interesting in the current environment, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding inflation and the path of central bank policy globally."”
livemint.com
“"Linkers are a bit expensive in most countries at the moment, perhaps with the exception of Poland," said Kieran Curtis, head of EM local currency debt at Aberdeen.”
livemint.com

Thierry Larose

Portfolio manager at Vontobel

“"Linkers had a great run so far this year but are now generally less attractive," Larose said. "However, we will be prompt to reassess our views and stance if and when El Niño is to affect food and electricity prices more than currently anticipated."”
livemint.com

Sources

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