2 weeks ago
EM Inflation-Linked Debt Draws Selective Bets After Big Run
Some countries' governments borrow money by selling bonds.
Usually, a bond pays a fixed amount of interest.
But there are special bonds called inflation-linked bonds, where the payments go up when prices in the country go up.
This year, these special bonds in developing countries have made investors a lot of money, about 11.3%.
That is much better than other types of bonds.
Investors are now being careful and choosing only the best ones.
They like the ones in Chile, Poland, and Argentina.
But they are less excited about the ones in Brazil and Mexico now.
One reason is that prices are rising faster than expected in many countries.
Also, the Turkish central bank said it did not meet its price goal and raised its forecast.
Investors are watching the weather too, because something called El Niño could make food prices go up.
Overall, these special bonds are still popular, but investors are being pickier about which ones to buy.
An index tracking inflation-linked emerging-market local-currency government debt returned 11.3% in 2026 through Thursday, following its best year in over a decade.
The broader index of local debt gained 1.5%, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index lost 0.1%.
Traders are turning to linkers in Chile, Poland, and Argentina after strong returns in Brazil and Mexico, the two largest markets.
The Turkish central bank revised its year-end inflation projection to 28%, up from 26%, acknowledging a 'partial failure' to meet CPI targets.
Brazil and Mexico account for more than half of all index-eligible EM inflation-linked debt, which has surged to above $800 billion.
- Who
- Emerging-market investors, including portfolio managers at BlackRock, Vontobel, Aberdeen, and Aegon Asset Management, and the Turkish central bank.
- What
- Investors are becoming more selective in the $886 billion emerging-market inflation-linked debt market after a strong run of returns.
- Where
- Emerging markets, with focus on Latin America (Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, Argentina) and other countries like Poland, South Africa, and Turkey.
- When
- In 2026, through Thursday of the reporting period.
- Why
- Persistent inflation worries, currency swings, higher energy costs, and divergent central-bank paths are pushing investors to adjust their bets.
Selective Linker Enthusiasts
Rotation to Fixed Coupons
Attractiveness of inflation-linked bonds
Selective Linker Enthusiasts
Linkers remain attractive given inflation uncertainty and central-bank policy paths; favored in Chile, Colombia, Poland, and Argentina.
Rotation to Fixed Coupons
Linkers are now generally less attractive and expensive in most countries; some prefer fixed-coupon bonds where long rates are mid-double digits, like in Brazil.
Key facts
- Asset class size
- $886 billion
- Index return (2026 YTD)
- 11.3%
- Broader local debt index return
- 1.5%
- Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index return
- -0.1%
- Turkey year-end inflation projection
- 28% (revised up from 26%)
- EM inflation-linked debt (index-eligible)
- Above $800 billion
- Share from Brazil and Mexico
- More than half of index-eligible debt
Quotes
Benjamin Souza
Head of strategy for Latin America at BlackRock
“"Inflation‑linked bonds are increasingly interesting in the current environment, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding inflation and the path of central bank policy globally."”
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“"Linkers are a bit expensive in most countries at the moment, perhaps with the exception of Poland," said Kieran Curtis, head of EM local currency debt at Aberdeen.”
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Thierry Larose
Portfolio manager at Vontobel
“"Linkers had a great run so far this year but are now generally less attractive," Larose said. "However, we will be prompt to reassess our views and stance if and when El Niño is to affect food and electricity prices more than currently anticipated."”
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