1 day ago
Weak Holiday Spending Clouds China’s Market Reopening
China’s mainland stock markets are set to reopen after a week-long holiday.
During the break, Hong Kong stocks linked to China fell.
Early reports also suggest people traveled less and spent less during the holiday.
That has made investors worry that shoppers are still cautious.
The government has announced some targeted support, but investors are waiting to see if more help will come.
A major Communist Party meeting later in October may offer clues about future policies.
China’s technology shares could get some support from a patent deal between Qualcomm and Huawei.
Analysts say the wider market still needs stronger economic news to look more promising.
Mainland Chinese markets reopen Thursday after closing for the National Day holiday beginning Oct. 1.
The Hang Seng Index fell 2% since Sept. 30, while a gauge of major Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong declined 1.7% during the break.
Early Golden Week data showed muted travel, lower per-person spending and a sharp drop in box-office sales.
Investors are waiting for possible further support measures and the Communist Party’s fifth plenum, scheduled for Oct. 26–29.
A Qualcomm-Huawei patent license deal may benefit AI-related hardware stocks, while the CSI 300’s breach of 4,418 raises technical concerns.
- Who
- Investors in Chinese markets, including mainland and Hong Kong equities.
- What
- Mainland shares may face renewed pressure when markets reopen after weak holiday spending and declines in Hong Kong-listed Chinese stocks.
- Where
- Mainland China and Hong Kong markets.
- When
- Mainland markets reopen Thursday after the National Day holiday; the fifth plenum is scheduled for Oct. 26–29.
- Why
- Muted consumer activity, limited expectations for broad stimulus, external uncertainties and technical weakness are weighing on sentiment.
Cautious Market Outlook
Potential Market Supports
Broad market prospects
Cautious Market Outlook
Weak holiday spending, falling Hong Kong shares, limited stimulus so far, and a breached CSI 300 support level could weigh on mainland shares.
Potential Market Supports
Further fiscal measures are possible, and the upcoming Communist Party meeting may bring greater efforts to support growth.
Technology stocks
Cautious Market Outlook
Analysts say stronger economic data and earnings are needed to justify a broadly bullish stance.
Potential Market Supports
Qualcomm’s patent license agreement with Huawei may support optimism in China’s AI-related hardware and technology stocks.
Key facts
- Mainland market reopening
- Thursday, after a closure beginning Oct. 1 for the National Day holiday
- CSI 300 technical level
- The index recently fell below support at 4,418, a level identified as a previous low in March.
- Hong Kong market performance
- The Hang Seng Index fell 2% since Sept. 30; a gauge of major Chinese firms listed in Hong Kong fell 1.7% during the holiday period.
- Holiday spending
- Early data indicated muted travel, softer spending per person, lukewarm city entertainment and sharply lower box-office sales.
- Policy measures already announced
- Targeted measures included mortgage subsidies and expanded lending to selected industries.
- Fifth plenum
- The Communist Party meeting is scheduled for Oct. 26–29.
- Currency and bonds
- Analysts expected the onshore yuan to remain firm and Chinese sovereign bonds to be relatively insulated from turmoil in developed debt markets.
Quotes
Leonid Mironov
Portfolio manager at Gavekal Capital
“Beijing’s additional policy tweaks are by no means certain, but they are logical choices for the country that needs to at least lean against the persistent softness in domestic demand and keep the favorable capital market environment for businesses leading the country’s tech catch-up in strategic industries”
livemint.com
“HSI is down for the period and seems like no positive news on the consumption front, so probably a lower open”
livemint.com
Matt Maley
Chief market strategist at Miller Tabak
“Otherwise, any further weakness will signal a very important change in trend.”
livemint.com
Sources
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