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History Favors October Stock Market Comeback; Stocks to Watch
Indian stock markets have often performed well in October, although results change from year to year.
In October 2025, the Nifty and Sensex both rose by more than 4%.
In October 2024, both indexes fell sharply instead.
The fall in 2024 was followed by four more months of declines.
In 2023, October was weak, but the markets recovered during the next two months.
Analysts believe Indian companies are still showing healthy earnings growth.
They also say stock prices are less expensive than at their 2024 highs.
However, they expect investors to choose individual companies carefully rather than buying the whole market.
Motilal Oswal Financial Services listed several stocks it considers attractive, but these ideas do not guarantee gains.
In October 2025, Nifty rose 4.51% to 25,722, while Sensex gained 4.57% to 83,938.
October 2024 brought sharp declines of 6.22% for Nifty and 5.83% for Sensex, followed by four more months of losses.
October 2023 also ended lower, but both benchmarks gained 5-8% in each of the next two months.
Analysts said valuations and earnings have improved, although future gains are likely to depend more on individual stock selection.
MOFSL’s preferred stocks included Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, State Bank of India, Titan, Adani Enterprises, and several other companies.
- Who
- The Nifty and Sensex, market analysts including Vinay Paharia, and Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
- What
- A review of October stock-market performance and analysts’ stock ideas for Indian equities.
- Where
- India’s equity markets.
- When
- The analysis covers October performance from 2016 through October 2025, with forward-looking comments for the current market.
- Why
- Historical October performance, improved valuations, healthy earnings growth, and a strong macro environment are shaping expectations, although analysts favor selective stock-picking.
Selective and cautious outlook
Constructive market outlook
Breadth of future gains
Selective and cautious outlook
Vinay Paharia said a broad-based market re-rating appears less likely than in previous years, increasing the importance of choosing individual stocks.
Constructive market outlook
Motilal Oswal Financial Services said lower valuations, healthy earnings growth, and a strong macro environment have improved the risk-reward balance for Indian equities.
Market strategy
Selective and cautious outlook
The cautious view favors a bottom-up approach rather than expecting the entire market to rise broadly.
Constructive market outlook
The constructive view sees continued earnings recovery from FY25 lows and relatively stronger growth in mid- and small-cap companies as potential supports.
Key facts
- October 2025 Nifty performance
- Nifty gained 1,111 points, or 4.51%, and ended at 25,722.
- October 2025 Sensex performance
- Sensex rose 3,671.09 points, or 4.57%, to finish at 83,938.
- October 2024 performance
- Nifty fell 6.22% and Sensex declined 5.83%; both were followed by four months of losses.
- October 2023 performance
- Nifty dropped 2.84% and Sensex fell 2.97%, followed by gains in the next two months.
- Largest October rally
- The biggest rally in the past decade came in 2017, when Sensex rose 6.17% and Nifty gained 5.59%.
- Market outlook
- Analysts expect performance to remain bottom-up, with stock selection increasingly important.
- Featured research house
- Motilal Oswal Financial Services provided Nifty and non-Nifty stock ideas.
Quotes
MOFSL
Brokerage and financial-services research institution providing the market assessment and stock ideas
“With valuations now significantly below their peaks, earnings growth remaining healthy, and macro environment staying strong, we believe risk-reward has enhanced further for Indian equities. However, given the relatively higher earnings growth in the mid- and small-cap segments, market performance is likely to remain firmly bottom-up.”
businesstoday.in
Sources
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