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Arthur Hayes Warns AI Data Centre Boom Could Endure Costly Crash
Arthur Hayes thinks companies may be building more AI data centres than people will need.
These centres provide the computing power AI systems use.
When new centres are ready, companies may have to pay for computing capacity they already promised to buy.
Hayes thinks this could hurt the businesses that built them and lead to a downturn.
He says governments might respond with a bailout, putting more money into financial markets.
In his view, that extra money could help Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
But he also says AI could become useful enough to earn companies money, and he does not recommend betting against AI stocks.
Hayes is also working on Flop, a project intended to let people buy and sell computing power.
Arthur Hayes warned that AI companies may be overbuilding data centres, creating computing capacity they may not need.
He expects pressure when new centres are completed in late 2027 or 2028 and customers face bills for promised computing power.
Hayes said a downturn could lead to a government-led bailout and added liquidity that might benefit Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
He said he would not short AI stocks and noted that suppliers such as NVIDIA and memory-chip companies are already profiting.
Hayes’s project Flop aims to create a market for computing power, with AI-agent payments planned for the first quarter of 2027.
- Who
- Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom.
- What
- Hayes warned that AI data-centre investment could be excessive, potentially leading to a downturn, bailout and increased liquidity that could benefit crypto.
- Where
- Hayes made his comments to CNBC.
- When
- He pointed to late 2027 or 2028 as a potential pressure point; Flop plans AI-agent payments in the first quarter of 2027.
- Why
- He doubts that AI businesses will be able to earn enough to repay the large investments in computing infrastructure.
Risks of overbuilding
Reasons for optimism
Whether AI infrastructure investment will pay off
Risks of overbuilding
Hayes warned that companies may build excessive data-centre capacity and doubted that AI businesses could return the large infrastructure investments to investors.
Reasons for optimism
Hayes said AI could prove useful enough over the next 12 months to increase demand and help companies earn money.
How to view AI stocks
Risks of overbuilding
Hayes expects a possible downturn as data centres come online and customers pay for the computing capacity they committed to use.
Reasons for optimism
Despite this concern, Hayes said he does not consider shorting AI stocks a good investment idea and noted that NVIDIA and memory-chip suppliers are already profiting.
Key facts
- Speaker
- Arthur Hayes
- Role
- CIO of the crypto investment fund and family office Maelstrom
- Potential pressure point
- Late 2027 or 2028, when new data centres are completed and customers face charges for agreed computing capacity
- Potential consequence
- Hayes expects a downturn could prompt a government-led bailout and add liquidity to financial markets
- Potential crypto impact
- Hayes believes additional liquidity could benefit Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
- Flop payment plan
- AI-agent payments are planned for the first quarter of 2027
- Flop objective
- Create a spot market where participants offer GPU computing power for AI inference in exchange for Flop tokens
Sources
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