3 weeks ago
BJP-Akali Reunion Faces Five Major Roadblocks, Analysis Says
In India, two political groups called the BJP and the Akali Dal used to be close partners.
They worked together for 23 years in the state of Punjab but broke up in 2020 after farmers got very angry about new farming laws.
Recently, their leaders met again, and many people started wondering if the two groups would team up once more.
Working together could help them win more votes, because both lost support when they competed alone.
But experts say making up will be very hard for several reasons.
The Akali Dal's leader was punished by an important Sikh religious group for his past decisions, which hurt his party's reputation.
The BJP says it no longer wants to be the smaller partner and will ask for more seats.
Farmers in Punjab still remember the old fight and may not trust the BJP.
Also, other parties are now much stronger in Punjab, making it harder for the old partners to win together.
So even after the meeting, these two former friends still have a long, difficult road ahead.
Shiromani Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Badal's meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi sparked speculation of a BJP-Akali reunification after nearly six years.
The 23-year-old alliance ended on September 26, 2020, when SAD broke ties with BJP over the now-repealed three farm laws.
SAD's vote share slipped from 18 per cent in 2022 to 13 per cent in 2024 and 9.71 per cent in recent municipal body elections.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah said the BJP is 'done playing Chhota Bhai' in Punjab, signaling it will demand a higher number of seats.
Sukhbir Badal was declared Tankhaiya (guilty of religious misconduct) by the Akal Takht on August 30, 2024, hurting SAD's Panthic credibility.
AAP won 56 rural seats in the 2022 Punjab assembly elections, followed by Congress with 7, SAD with 2, and BJP with none.
- Who
- Sukhbir Singh Badal, chief of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
- What
- Speculation of a BJP-Akali Dal re-alliance after nearly six years, with analysis identifying five major roadblocks to the reunion.
- Where
- Punjab, India.
- When
- Following Badal's recent meeting with Modi; the alliance had broken on September 26, 2020.
- Why
- Both parties lost vote share contesting solo and could benefit from joining forces, but seat-sharing demands, lingering farmer resentment, and SAD's weakened Panthic credibility complicate a reunion.
Pro-reunion camp
Skeptics and opponents
Prospects of a re-alliance
Pro-reunion camp
Badal's meeting with Modi and both parties' poor solo results suggest a deal-based alliance could benefit both sides.
Skeptics and opponents
Psephologists say re-stitching the estranged alliance is complicated and that the parties are joining based on mutual weakness rather than shared principles.
Whether the BJP should ally with SAD
Pro-reunion camp
Leaders like Sunil Jakhar and Captain Amarinder Singh have favoured an alliance with SAD.
Skeptics and opponents
BJP insiders say a section of the party opposes re-stitching, and Amit Shah insists the BJP is done playing 'Chhota Bhai' and will demand more seats.
Key facts
- Former alliance duration
- 23 years
- Alliance break date
- September 26, 2020
- Farm laws repeal date
- December 1, 2021
- SAD vote share (2022)
- 18 per cent
- SAD vote share (2024)
- 13 per cent
- SAD vote share (2024 municipal polls)
- 9.71 per cent
- SAD seats under old alliance
- 94 seats (BJP allowed 20 per cent)
- Akal Takht ruling against Badal
- Declared Tankhaiya on August 30, 2024
Quotes
Professor Ashutosh Kumar
Head, Department of Politics, Panjab University
“"The mutual vote transfer that once made the BJP‑SAD alliance formidable has collapsed. While the urban Hindus will no longer readily back traditional Akali candidates, the rural Jat Sikhs will also distrust any BJP‑linked ticket."”
NDTV
“"Re‑stitching the estranged alliance was far more complicated than simply picking up from the point where SAD parted ways."”
NDTV
Sources
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