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UP Rajya Sabha Polls Set Up Contest For Tenth Seat
Uttar Pradesh will elect members to 10 Rajya Sabha seats on October 16.
The BJP is expected to win seven seats, while the SP is expected to win two.
That leaves one seat whose result is uncertain.
Each candidate needs 37 first-preference votes because the Assembly currently has 396 members.
The SP has announced Ram Gopal Yadav and Dhanraj Nathwani and may name a third candidate.
The SP hopes some legislators from BJP allies or the BJP will vote for its third candidate.
The BJP-led NDA is also trying to secure enough votes for its eighth candidate.
The result could depend on legislators changing how they vote or being unable to vote.
The BJP and SP are positioned to win seven and two of Uttar Pradesh’s 10 Rajya Sabha seats.
The remaining seat could hinge on cross-voting and support from unaffiliated or NDA legislators.
Uttar Pradesh’s 396-member Assembly means each candidate needs 37 first-preference votes.
The SP has 102 potential votes with Congress support but needs nine more for its third candidate.
The NDA has between 292 and 295 effective votes, depending on allies and SP legislators’ support.
- Who
- The Bharatiya Janata Party, the Samajwadi Party, their allies, and Uttar Pradesh legislators.
- What
- A contest is developing for the 10th Uttar Pradesh Rajya Sabha seat, with possible cross-voting.
- Where
- Uttar Pradesh, in the state Legislative Assembly and Rajya Sabha election process.
- When
- The elections are scheduled for October 16, before the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections likely to be held early next year.
- Why
- The BJP and SP have enough support for seven and two seats, but the final seat depends on additional votes and possible cross-voting.
Samajwadi Party Position
BJP-NDA Position
Who can secure the final seat
Samajwadi Party Position
The SP says it may attract Muslim legislators from NDA allies and dissatisfied BJP legislators, allowing its third candidate to win through cross-voting.
BJP-NDA Position
The BJP is relying on NDA allies, unaffiliated legislators, and several SP MLAs who previously cross-voted to secure its eighth candidate.
Vote calculations
Samajwadi Party Position
The SP has 102 potential votes with Congress support, but needs nine additional first-preference votes and is uncertain whether jailed MLA Ramakant Yadav can vote.
BJP-NDA Position
The NDA has 294 effective votes by one calculation, or 292 if some SBSP legislators cross-vote; support from three listed SP MLAs could raise the total to 295.
Political significance
Samajwadi Party Position
An SP victory for the third candidate would demonstrate the party’s ability to attract legislators from the ruling alliance ahead of the Assembly elections.
BJP-NDA Position
The BJP views losing the contest because of cross-voting as an adverse political message before the Assembly elections.
Key facts
- Seats at stake
- 10 Rajya Sabha seats from Uttar Pradesh
- Assembly strength
- 396 members currently sit in the 403-member House
- Votes required
- 37 first-preference votes per candidate
- SP position
- The SP has 100 effective MLAs and two Congress MLAs, giving it 102 potential votes
- NDA position
- The NDA’s effective strength is estimated at 294, potentially falling to 292
- SP candidates
- Ram Gopal Yadav and Reliance Industries executive Dhanraj Nathwani have been announced
- Election timing
- October 16, ahead of likely Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections early next year
Quotes
A senior BJP leader
An unnamed senior leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
“The counting will be completed. It’s a matter of counting. This exercise (deciding on a third candidat) needs patience. Several of our people want to come back because they are unhappy there (in the NDA),”
indianexpress.com
“If the BJP loses out to the SP’s third candidate due to cross-voting, it will send an adverse message to the people ahead of the Assembly elections.”
indianexpress.com
Sources
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